Jane

Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin

April

As the verdict on spot Bitcoin ETFs approaches between Jan. 8 and Jan. 10, market analysts, including K33 Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde, predict a sell-the-news scenario. 
Lunde, citing trader exposure and derivatives’ massive premiums, <a href="https://k33.com/research/articles/all-time-high-cme-premiums-ahead-of-etf-verdict" data-type="link" data-id="https://k33.com/research/articles/all-time-high-cme-premiums-ahead-of-etf-verdict" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suggests</a> a 75% likelihood of this outcome, overshadowing the 20% chance of approval. 
Despite signs of froth in the <a href="https://crypto.news/market-cap/" data-type="link" data-id="https://crypto.news/market-cap/">market</a>, such as futures premiums reaching annualized levels of 50%, institutional players continue to build long exposure, reflecting expectations of <a href="https://crypto.news/cathie-wood-hints-at-spot-bitcoin-etf-approval-date/" data-type="link" data-id="https://crypto.news/cathie-wood-hints-at-spot-bitcoin-etf-approval-date/">approval</a>. Open interest surged by over 50,000 BTC in the last three months, driven by anticipation of ETF approval. 
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 <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="1024" src="https://crypto.news/app/uploads/2024/01/chart-1024x1024.jpeg" alt="K33 Research: Approval of Bitcoin ETFs will cause bearish trend - 31" class="wp-image-14233748">
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 Seven-day chart of BTC | CoinGecko
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On the retail side, funding rates on offshore exchanges hit an annualized high of 72%, indicating extreme anticipation. However, given the aggressive leverage from long positions, the impending ETF verdict may trigger long squeezes. 
Bitcoin’s recent <a href="https://crypto.news/bitcoin-breaks-the-45k-zone-indicator-suggests-a-further-rally/" data-type="link" data-id="https://crypto.news/bitcoin-breaks-the-45k-zone-indicator-suggests-a-further-rally/">gains</a>, surpassing $45,000, correlate with growing U.S. spot ETF approval anticipation. Analysts suggest a potential peak in the current rally on the verdict date due to profit-taking and unsustainable premiums. 
Looking ahead, Lunde expects a net inflow of at least 50,000 <a href="https://crypto.news/price/bitcoin/" data-type="link" data-id="https://crypto.news/price/bitcoin/">BTC</a>, equal to $2.3 billion in January, crucial for sustained market growth. While a sell-the-news event may lead to short-term fluctuations, the combination of potential spot ETFs and the <a href="https://crypto.news/bitcoin-halving-price-surge-btc-2024/" data-type="link" data-id="https://crypto.news/bitcoin-halving-price-surge-btc-2024/">Bitcoin halving</a> event in April could contribute to a favorable market outlook as the year progresses. 
 Read more: <a href="https://crypto.news/jim-cramer-bitcoin-cannot-be-killed-is-here-to-stay/"> Jim Cramer: Bitcoin cannot be killed, is here to stay </a>

K33 Research: Approval of Bitcoin ETFs will cause bearish trend

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