Waves (WAVES) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrade & Network Health (Mixed Impact)

Overview: HTX announced support for the WAVES network upgrade, suspending deposits on September 13, 2026, at block height 5,400,000. Successful upgrades typically enhance network reliability, which is foundational for long-term value. However, Waves has faced security incidents, including a 2025 North Korean infiltration of its Keeper-Wallet repository, which damaged trust.

What this means: A smooth upgrade could temporarily boost confidence and attract staking, providing price support. Conversely, any technical hiccups or renewed security concerns could trigger sell-offs, especially given the project's tarnished security record (Cryptoslate).

2. Ecosystem Growth vs. Competitive Pressure (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Waves has launched AI tools like an AI Launchpad and Liquidity Manager and secured a $10M investment for its EVM-compatible L2, Units Network. These developments aim to lower barriers for developers and improve capital efficiency within its DeFi ecosystem.

What this means: If these tools gain meaningful adoption, they could increase on-chain activity and demand for WAVES tokens for fees and staking. This represents a fundamental bullish driver, though success depends on execution and competing against larger L1/L2 networks (CoinJournal).

3. Exchange Listings & Market Liquidity (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Liquidity is contracting. Gate delisted WAVES perpetual futures in July 2026, and Toobit delisted the WAVES/USDT spot pair in June 2026. Furthermore, WEEX reduced WAVES futures leverage from 100x to 20x in August 2026, typically done to mitigate risk in low-liquidity assets.

What this means: Reduced exchange access and lower leverage caps directly limit buying power and increase volatility. This creates a persistent headwind, making sustained price rallies more difficult without a significant influx of new capital or a major relisting on a top-tier exchange (Gate, WEEX).

Conclusion

WAVES's near-term trajectory hinges on the successful network upgrade delivering tangible improvements without setbacks. Medium-term price recovery depends on whether its AI and L2 initiatives can drive measurable adoption and Total Value Locked (TVL) growth, offsetting the negative impact of dwindling exchange support. For holders, the key question is: Will rising on-chain utility finally outweigh the persistent liquidity drain?