Qtum (QTUM) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Halving Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Qtum’s second halving on December 1, 2025, cut block rewards by 50% to 0.25 QTUM, reducing annual inflation to ~0.25%. Only 1.9M QTUM remain unminted, extending full issuance to ~2045. Historically, the 2021 halving preceded a 30% price surge (CCN), but QTUM has since fallen 69% YoY.

What this means: While reduced supply could support prices if demand holds, QTUM’s 90-day price drop (-46%) signals weak momentum. The halving’s bullish potential hinges on broader altcoin sentiment recovery.

2. Core v29.1 Upgrade (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview: Qtum’s January 2026 hard fork integrates Bitcoin Core 29.1 (improved node reliability) and Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade (EIP-2537 for ZK-Rollups). This enables Layer 2 scaling for DeFi/gaming and aligns with EVM standards (Qtum).

What this means: Enhanced scalability and developer tools could attract dApps, driving network activity. However, competing L1s like Ethereum dominate mindshare – QTUM needs visible ecosystem growth post-upgrade to justify re-rating.

3. Stablecoin & Regulatory Risks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Qtum plans a native stablecoin to reduce reliance on bridged assets (e.g., USDT), aiming to improve DeFi liquidity. However, stablecoin regulations are tightening globally, exemplified by China’s December 2025 crackdown (CoinDesk).

What this means: A successful launch could increase QTUM’s utility and cross-chain appeal. Conversely, delays or restrictive policies might stall progress, prolonging its niche status.

Conclusion

Qtum’s 2026 trajectory hinges on executing upgrades to differentiate its hybrid blockchain model amid fierce L1 competition. While the halving and technical improvements offer speculative upside, persistent bearish momentum (price below all key moving averages) and “Bitcoin Season” sentiment pose headwinds. Can v29.1 catalyze developer activity before supply dynamics kick in? Monitor upgrade adoption rates and stablecoin progress through Q1 2026.