Latest Waves (WAVES) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
WAVES reclaimed its 7-day SMA ($0.6819) and 30-day EMA ($0.7017), with the RSI7 at 68.79 nearing overbought levels. The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.0044), suggesting weakening bearish pressure.

What this means:
Short-term traders likely interpreted the breakout above $0.71 as a buy signal, especially with volume spiking 75% to $14.4M. However, the 200-day SMA ($0.946) remains a distant resistance, and the 30-day trend is still negative.

What to look out for:
A sustained hold above the pivot point ($0.7185) could target $0.735 (50% Fibonacci retracement), while a drop below $0.70 may invalidate the rally.

2. Instant Finality Testnet Launch (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Waves announced the activation of instant transaction finality (~2 seconds) on its testnet in December 2025, leveraging its microblock architecture (Waves 🌊).

What this means:
This upgrade addresses a longstanding scalability bottleneck, potentially attracting DeFi builders seeking faster settlement. Historically, Waves’ infrastructure upgrades (e.g., 2024’s Units Network L2) have correlated with price rallies.

What to look out for:
Mainnet implementation timelines and developer adoption metrics post-testnet.

3. Staking Incentives & Supply Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Waves’ “Make Your $WAVES Work” campaign promotes staking via WX Network, coinciding with a 23.3% price surge last week as CEX balances hit 1-month lows (WavesOnChain).

What this means:
Reducing exchange supply can amplify price swings, but the uncapped token model (119M circulating supply) risks dilution if demand doesn’t offset staking rewards.

Conclusion

The 24h rally reflects technical triggers and optimism around December’s upgrade, but sustainability hinges on delivering adoption for Waves’ AI tools and L2 ecosystem. Key watch: Can WAVES hold above $0.71 while Bitcoin dominance remains at 59%? Monitor testnet progress and staking participation rates for clues.

Deep Dive

1. Exchange Delistings (Bearish Impact)

Overview: WAVES faced multiple delistings in 2025, including ProBit Global (Oct 26) and KuCoin Earn (Sept 16), citing low liquidity and compliance reviews. These moves reduce trading access and often trigger sell-offs as users migrate assets.

What this means: Reduced exchange support limits buying avenues and amplifies sell pressure. The 24h trading volume ($11M) is 44.5% higher than average, suggesting panic selling or position unwinding.

What to look out for: New exchange listings or liquidity partnerships to counterbalance outflows.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)

Overview: WAVES trades below its 7-day SMA ($0.6734) and 30-day SMA ($0.7186). The MACD histogram (-0.0029) confirms bearish momentum, while the RSI (36.34) nears oversold territory but hasn’t triggered a reversal signal.

What this means: Traders often interpret sustained prices below SMAs as confirmation of downtrends. The lack of bullish divergence on RSI suggests weak buying interest.

Key level: A close above the 7-day SMA ($0.6734) could signal short-term relief.

3. Risk-Off Altcoin Sentiment (Bearish Context)

Overview: Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.23% this week, while the Altcoin Season Index sits at 16/100 (“Bitcoin Season”). Fear-driven markets (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 27) typically punish smaller-cap assets like WAVES first.

What this means: Investors are rotating into perceived safer assets like Bitcoin amid macroeconomic uncertainty, starving alts of capital. WAVES’ 30-day correlation with BTC is 0.84, but it lacks BTC’s institutional ETF inflows.

Conclusion

WAVES’ decline reflects a mix of project-specific headwinds (delistings, low liquidity) and sector-wide risk aversion. While oversold conditions could invite a bounce, sustained recovery likely requires improved exchange support or a market-wide altcoin rally.

Key watch: Can WAVES hold the $0.65 Fibonacci support (78.6% retracement level) to avoid a retest of its 2025 low near $0.55?