Latest Raydium (RAY) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Meme Sector Contraction (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Meme coin dominance fell to 0.034 on December 12 – its lowest since February 2025 (CryptoQuant). Raydium processed 90% of Solana meme token liquidity in 2024, but Artemis data shows a 65.9% sector-wide drop YTD.

What this means: Reduced meme trading activity directly impacts Raydium’s swap fees (primary RAY revenue source). With 93% of Raydium pools showing soft rug-pull indicators (Solidus Labs), traders are avoiding speculative assets.

Watch: Solana’s meme coin TVL – currently $9.7B vs. $30B January 2025 peak.

2. Solana DEX Competition Intensifies (Mixed Impact)

Overview: HumidiFi captured 35% of Solana’s DEX volume within 24h of launch (Dec 10), while Pump.fun holds 44% memecoin market share. Raydium’s 24h volume fell 18% to $21.7M.

What this means: New entrants offer lower fees (0.001% vs. Raydium’s 0.25%) and novel features like predictive pricing. While RAY remains Solana’s #2 DEX by TVL ($2.07B), its turnover ratio (0.075) trails Uniswap’s 0.41, signaling weaker liquidity efficiency.

3. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: RAY broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ($1.10) and 200-day SMA ($2.38). The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.058), and RSI (40.51) shows weakening momentum.

What this means: Traders exited positions after the $1.10 support breach – a level that held during November’s market-wide selloff. With $1.00 psychological support now tested, further downside to $0.966 (2025 low) is possible if Bitcoin dominance (58.7%) keeps rising.

Conclusion

RAY’s decline reflects fading meme hype, Solana DeFi fragmentation, and broken technical levels. While RAY remains integral to Solana’s infrastructure, its recovery likely requires a meme coin resurgence and reclaiming $1.28 (50% Fib).

Key watch: Can Raydium’s new LaunchLab token issuance platform counter Pump.fun’s dominance? Monitor daily DEX volume share on DeFiLlama.