Raydium (RAY) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. USD1 Stablecoin Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Raydium partnered with Trump-linked WLFI and Bonk to integrate USD1 stablecoin into Solana’s DeFi ecosystem (Yahoo Finance). USD1 trading pairs and liquidity pools went live on Raydium in November 2025, backed by WLFI’s $1.2M rewards program. USD1’s supply hit $2.88B, competing with USDC’s $9B dominance on Solana.

What this means: Increased stablecoin liquidity could boost Raydium’s trading volumes and fee revenue. If USD1 captures 20% of Solana’s stablecoin market, RAY’s annualized buybacks (currently 6% yield) might accelerate, supporting price recovery.

2. Solana’s DEX Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Raydium handles ~32% of Solana’s DEX volume but faces pressure from Pump.fun (44% memecoin market share) and Jupiter’s dominance in perps (Blockworks). Solana’s Firedancer upgrade (Q3 2025) aims to boost network capacity, potentially attracting more projects to Raydium.

What this means: While Solana’s growth lifts all DEXs, Raydium’s 0.13 turnover ratio (vs. Uniswap’s 0.41) signals liquidity risks. Success depends on retaining LaunchLab’s 60% fee growth amid rival platforms.

3. Regulatory & Market Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: 27% of crypto’s market cap comes from jurisdictions where Raydium is restricted (US, UK). Global fear sentiment (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 29) and Bitcoin’s 59% dominance squeeze altcoin liquidity.

What this means: Regulatory barriers cap Raydium’s addressable market, while thin liquidity (24h volume: $63M vs. $409M market cap) amplifies volatility. A prolonged “Bitcoin Season” could delay RAY’s rebound.

Conclusion

RAY’s path hinges on USD1 adoption fueling fee growth and Solana’s infrastructure upgrades offsetting regulatory headwinds. Traders should monitor whether Solana’s Q4 TVL growth (currently $8B) translates to sustained DEX volume—could RAY’s $1.23 swing low hold as a base for recovery?