Jupiter (JUP) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Tokenomics Reset: Litterbox Burn & Inflation (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The DAO approved burning 130M JUP (~4% of supply) via the Litterbox Trust (NullTX), aiming to counter dilution from 50% of protocol fees previously used for buybacks. However, 3.2B JUP remains unlocked (45.8% of total supply), with ongoing grants and airdrops adding sell pressure.
What this means: While the burn temporarily improves scarcity optics, JUP’s -40% 90-day drop suggests structural inflation (ASR staking rewards, grants) outweighs deflationary efforts. Sustained price recovery requires stricter supply controls or demand spikes from new use cases.

2. Jupiter Lend & Ultra V3 Execution (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview: Jupiter Lend’s beta launch (90% LTV loans) and Ultra V3’s trading engine (34x MEV protection, gasless swaps) target sticky DeFi users (Jupiter Docs). Success hinges on onboarding vs. rivals like Solend and Kamino.
What this means: If Lend captures 10-15% of Solana’s $11.4B TVL, JUP could see utility-driven demand. However, JUP isn’t directly used as collateral yet, limiting immediate tokenomics benefits.

3. Solana’s Altcoin Leverage (High Beta Risk)

Overview: JUP’s 0.87 correlation to SOL (30-day) makes it vulnerable to SOL’s -15% monthly dip. However, SOL’s ETF filings and network upgrades could revive alt liquidity, benefiting JUP’s $44M daily volume.
What this means: A SOL rebound above $200 could lift JUP past $0.40 (20% upside), but prolonged Fear sentiment (CMC Index 26) and BTC dominance (+59.4%) may delay recovery.

Conclusion

JUP’s 2025 outlook balances deflationary progress against Solana’s turbulence and product execution risks. Watch Q4 Lend adoption and whether DAO reserves shift to stables (reducing future sell pressure). Can JUP escape being a “governance ghost town” with real utility?