Latest Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Macro Liquidity Fears (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Bitcoin mirrored a global risk-asset selloff as Trump’s Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh – perceived as hawkish – reduced expectations for rate cuts. Gold and silver plunged 5-36%, while the USD strengthened.

What this means:
Warsh’s history of criticizing QE suggests tighter monetary policy could persist, reducing liquidity for speculative assets like BTC. Crypto’s correlation with equities (S&P futures -0.2%) intensified the downdraft.

Key watch:
Feb 3 Fed meeting minutes and U.S. Treasury yield movements.

2. Forced Liquidations & CME Gap (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Over $1.6B in crypto positions were liquidated in 24h, including $110M in BTC longs. CME futures reopened with a record $6.8K gap below Friday’s close.

What this means:
Thin weekend liquidity accelerated margin calls. The CME gap at $77.7K now acts as resistance – until filled, traders see downside toward $70K. Open interest fell 10.5% as leverage unwound.

Key watch:
BTC’s ability to reclaim $79.2K (23.6% Fib of recent drop).

3. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
BTC broke below the critical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $80.4K and 200-day EMA ($97.7K). RSI14 hit 23.37 – most oversold since April 2025’s tariff crash.

What this means:
While oversold conditions suggest a bounce, the loss of multi-month support opens path to $70K. MACD histogram (-1,438) shows strong bearish momentum.

Key watch:
Daily close above $80.4K to invalidate bear structure.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s drop combines macro policy fears, derivatives carnage, and technical failure. While extreme oversold levels hint at relief, sustained recovery needs BTC to hold $75K and fill the CME gap. Key watch: Whale accumulation patterns (3,000 BTC bought at $75K) vs. ETF outflows (-$349M weekly).

Deep Dive

1. Oversold Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin’s 24h rise comes after a 7-day drop of 7.34%, with RSI14 at 33.57 (near oversold levels) and MACD histogram at -792.6, signaling bearish momentum but potential exhaustion.

What this means: Short-term traders often interpret oversold RSI levels (below 30) as buying opportunities, triggering rebounds. However, Bitcoin remains below its 200-day SMA ($104,352), a key long-term resistance. The MACD divergence suggests weak bullish momentum, raising risks of a “dead cat bounce” if buying volume falters.

What to watch for: A sustained break above the 200-day SMA ($104,352) or failure to hold $81,071 (Fibonacci swing low).

2. Whale Accumulation (Bullish Impact)

Overview: On-chain data shows whales accumulating Bitcoin, including a Jan 2026 transfer of 5,964 BTC ($557M) from Coinbase to a private wallet, reducing immediate sell pressure.

What this means: Large holders moving BTC off exchanges typically signal long-term holding strategies, tightening supply. Whale activity has historically preceded price rallies, though timing varies. The market absorbed $6.8B in whale deposits to Binance in November 2025 without major declines, suggesting structural resilience.

What to watch for: Continued exchange outflows or large OTC trades (e.g., Antpool’s $205M BTC transfer in Dec 2025).

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s minor rebound reflects technical bargain-hunting and whale-driven supply constraints, though broader bearish trends persist. Watch for confirmation of bullish momentum via volume spikes above $104K or renewed sell-offs below $81K.

Key watch: Can BTC reclaim its 200-day SMA ($104,352) to invalidate the bearish macro structure?