Deep Dive
1. US CPI Data Looms (10 January 2026)
Overview: December’s CPI cooled to 2.7% (core: 2.6%), the sharpest drop since March 2025. January’s data (released 13 January) could determine Fed rate-cut odds (currently 14% for a 25bps cut). A lower print might propel BTC toward $95K, while hotter inflation risks a dip to $88K (CME gap support).
What this means: Bitcoin remains tethered to macro liquidity trends. Lower inflation could reignite risk appetite, but ETF outflows (-$249M on 9 January) and geopolitical tensions (U.S. operations in Venezuela) inject volatility. (CoinGape)
Overview: The U.S. will retain seized BTC in a national reserve, per hedge fund manager Scott Bessent. Florida plans legislation to expand state-level BTC holdings, while Cathie Wood suggests Trump may push federal acquisitions.
What this means: Institutionalizing BTC as a reserve asset validates its scarcity and geopolitical hedge role. Long-term, this could reduce sell pressure from government auctions and encourage sovereign adoption, though no direct purchases are planned yet. (CoinGape)
3. $93K Resistance Tested (10 January 2026)
Overview: BTC faces a tightening triangle between $88K (support) and $93K (resistance). Analysts note rising selling pressure at $93K, with $89.2K as critical support. A breakout could target $102K, while failure risks a drop to $87.5K.
What this means: Technical indecision reflects mixed sentiment. ETF outflows and leveraged long liquidations ($182M on 10 January) contrast with spot accumulation by long-term holders. The 4-hour RSI (46) suggests neutrality, but MACD hints at bullish momentum. (U.Today)
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s path hinges on macro catalysts, regulatory tailwinds, and technical resolve. While the Strategic Reserve narrative strengthens its store-of-value thesis, near-term price action remains hostage to inflation data and ETF flows. Will institutional demand offset retail caution as BTC consolidates?