Latest Aptos (APT) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Aave Incentives Launch (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Aave launched its first non-EVM deployment on Aptos on November 12, 2025, with a liquidity mining program managed by Metrom. Users supplying USDT/USDC earn rewards, driving immediate TVL growth.

What this means:
- Directly increases demand for APT as gas token for transactions
- Validates Aptos' technical capability to host major DeFi protocols
- First-mover advantage vs EVM chains in Move-based DeFi

Key metric: Aave deposits on Aptos reached $2M within days (Aptos Foundation).

2. Stablecoin Dominance (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Aptos processed $545.7M in stablecoin inflows over 24h – more than Ethereum ($200M) and BNB Chain ($400M) combined (AMBCrypto).

What this means:
- Signals institutional interest in APT as settlement layer
- Raises concerns about utility – 63% of APT transactions are stablecoin-related
- Creates sell pressure when stablecoins exit (circulating APT supply up 11.3M/month)

Contradiction: Despite $1.43B stablecoin market cap (ATH), APT DEX volume dropped 68% MoM to $1.52B.

3. Technical Rebound (Neutral Impact)

Overview: APT reclaimed its pivot point ($2.86) with MACD bullish crossover, though RSI (42.94) remains below neutral.

What this means:
- Short-term traders capitalizing on oversold conditions (RSI hit 35 on Nov 17)
- Bearish structure intact – price below 30-day SMA ($3.12)
- Critical resistance: $3.33 (23.6% Fib of July-Nov drop)

Conclusion

Aptos’ rally combines DeFi momentum with stablecoin inflows, but faces structural headwinds from token unlocks and declining network speed (TPS down 55% YTD). Key watch: Can APT hold above $2.86 pivot with Bitcoin dominance at 58.3%? Monitor Aave TVL growth and Thursday’s $4.6M APT unlock.

1. Macro Market Drag (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The total crypto market fell 4.19% ($135B loss) as Extreme Fear sentiment (15/100) and rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured risk assets. APT’s -3.01% drop mirrored this trend, though its 24h volume surged 39% to $191M, suggesting capitulation.

What this means: APT remains correlated to Bitcoin (BTC dominance: 58.34%), which fell 1% to ~$95K. With derivatives open interest down 9.2% sector-wide, traders reduced leveraged bets, amplifying downside.

2. Technical Support Breach (Bearish)

Overview: APT broke below its pivot point ($2.79) and 7-day SMA ($2.93), with RSI14 at 37.05 nearing oversold. The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.0088) but remains below the signal line, signaling weak momentum.

What this means: Bears regained control after APT failed to hold the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($3.33). Next support lies at the swing low ($2.40). The 30-day SMA ($3.13) now acts as resistance.

Key watch: A close above $2.93 (7-day SMA) could signal short-term relief.

3. Mixed Fundamental Catalysts (Neutral)

Overview: Positive news (Aptos’ Turkey staking deal with Paribu Custody on 17 Nov) clashed with bearish narratives, including a Bybit report (13 Nov) noting APT’s blockchain can freeze assets—raising decentralization concerns.

What this means: While institutional adoption (e.g., $150B+ processed by Paribu) supports long-term use cases, short-term traders focused on centralization risks and APT’s -40% 60-day decline.

Conclusion

APT’s drop reflects macro risk-off flows, technical breakdowns, and mixed sentiment toward its institutional growth vs. protocol governance. Key watch: Can APT stabilize above $2.40 swing low as fear subsides? Monitor Bitcoin’s $95K level and APT’s RSI for exhaustion signals.