Aptos (APT) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Stablecoin Dominance vs. DEX Slump (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Aptos’ stablecoin supply hit $1.432B (ATH) on November 17, 2025, growing 5x YoY. This outpaces Ethereum and BNB Chain in recent flows (AmbCrypto). However, monthly DEX volume plunged from $4.77B in October to $1.52B in November, with TPS halving to ~100.

What this means:
While liquidity inflows could support APT’s utility value, declining network activity suggests adoption isn’t translating to sustained demand. Historically, stablecoin growth without proportional fee revenue (like Ethereum’s burn) has limited price impact.

2. Regulatory Footprint Expansion (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview:
Aptos Labs CEO Avery Ching joined the CFTC’s Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on June 30, 2025, positioning APT as a policy influencer. Wyoming also shortlisted Aptos for its state stablecoin pilot (CoinDesk).

What this means:
Regulatory credibility could attract institutional capital, especially in RWA tokenization ($540M+ on Aptos). Projects like BlackRock’s BUIDL expansion to Aptos signal trust – a key driver for Layer 1 valuations.

3. Vesting Overhang (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
51% of APT’s 1B max supply is allocated to the community, with 19% to core contributors and 13.48% to investors – all subject to gradual unlocks until 2028. Monthly unlocks currently add ~$48.9M sell pressure.

What this means:
Persistent supply inflation (current circulating supply: 733M APT) may cap rallies until 2026-2027. Similar unlocks at competitors like Avalanche and Solana historically muted prices despite ecosystem growth.

Conclusion

Aptos’ stablecoin/RWA traction and regulatory clout provide mid-term upside potential, but tokenomics and weak DeFi metrics pose headwinds. Watch the BTC Dominance (58.34%) – a drop below 55% could ignite altcoin rallies. Will APT’s $2.86 pivot hold if macro liquidity worsens?

“In crypto, adoption without scarcity is a treadmill.”