Latest Wormhole (W) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview: W’s price ($0.0659) crossed above its 7-day SMA ($0.0603) and EMA ($0.0628), with MACD flipping bullish (histogram +0.00093). The RSI-14 (43.8) suggests room for further upside before overbought conditions.

What this means: Traders are reacting to the first bullish technical alignment since October 2025. The 8.78% surge coincided with a 16% rise in trading volume ($35.6M), confirming buyer conviction.

What to watch: A close above the 30-day EMA ($0.0721) could target $0.075–$0.08.

2. Monad Mainnet Integration (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Wormhole deployed its cross-chain messaging protocol on Monad’s EVM-compatible Layer 1 on September 26, 2025, expanding its institutional use cases.

What this means: Monad’s high-throughput blockchain (10,000+ TPS) positions Wormhole as a critical bridge for DeFi and RWA projects. The integration may accelerate W’s adoption in regulated financial workflows.

3. W 2.0 Tokenomics Stabilization (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The September 17 W 2.0 upgrade introduced bi-weekly token unlocks (vs. annual cliffs) and a 4% staking yield, reducing sell-side pressure from large holders.

What this means: While the changes improve long-term tokenomics, 53% of W’s 10B supply remains locked, keeping dilution risks elevated. The 24h rally suggests short-term optimism, but the 30-day price (-12%) still reflects macro bearishness.

Conclusion

Wormhole’s rebound combines technical triggers with progress on cross-chain utility, though structural supply headwinds persist. Key watch: Can W hold above $0.065 amid rising altcoin volatility? Monitor Monad’s adoption metrics and staking participation rates for sustainability clues.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: W broke below its 30-day SMA ($0.0708) and key Fibonacci support at $0.0629 (50% retracement level). The RSI (42.17) shows bearish momentum but no oversold signal yet.
What this means: Technical traders likely exited positions after the breakdown, accelerating selling. The next support sits at the 61.8% Fib level ($0.0629), which aligns with the 7-day SMA ($0.0605). A close below $0.060 could trigger steeper declines.

2. Altcoin Liquidity Drain (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 24 (“Extreme Fear”) on November 9, while Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.23% as capital rotated to safer assets. Altcoin trading volume fell 18.92% month-over-month.
What this means: W, as a mid-cap altcoin, faced amplified selling pressure in this risk-averse environment. Projects without immediate catalysts are particularly vulnerable to liquidity shifts toward BTC and stablecoins.

3. Token Unlock Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: W’s circulating supply is 4.89B (48.9% of total), with bi-weekly unlocks ongoing since October 2025. While the W 2.0 upgrade aimed to smooth sell pressure, gradual unlocks still contribute to supply inflation.
What this means: The market may be pricing in dilution risks, despite the improved unlock schedule. Daily selling pressure from unlocks remains a headwind until protocol revenues (via Wormhole Reserve) meaningfully offset it.

Conclusion

W’s drop reflects a mix of technical triggers, altcoin weakness, and lingering supply concerns. While its partnerships (Ripple, BlackRock) and cross-chain dominance ($60B+ processed) offer long-term upside, short-term sentiment remains tied to macro crypto flows. Key watch: Can W hold the $0.060 support, and will the Wormhole Reserve’s revenue-sharing mechanism gain traction this month?