Latest THORChain (RUNE) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: RUNE’s RSI-7 hit 22.09 (oversold) on November 6, near its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement support at $0.744. This sparked a 5.68% rebound despite bearish MACD signals.

What this means: Short-term traders likely capitalized on oversold conditions, but the 200-day EMA ($1.35) remains a critical resistance. A sustained break above $0.80 (current price: $0.779) could signal further momentum.

What to look out for: Whether RUNE holds above the 7-day SMA ($0.80) or faces rejection.

2. NEAR Intents Integration (Bullish Impact)

Overview: THORWallet integrated NEAR Intents on November 5, enabling cross-chain swaps across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and others without intermediaries.

What this means: This boosts THORChain’s utility as a liquidity layer, aligning with its goal to replace centralized exchanges. THORWallet’s $1.7B swap volume and $3.8M revenue reflect growing adoption, which could increase demand for RUNE as the settlement asset.

3. Network Growth & Upgrades (Bullish Impact)

Overview: THORChain’s transaction volume grew 50% YoY, with 75 active developers (double 2023’s count). The pending V3.12 upgrade (details undisclosed) has fueled speculation.

What this means: Protocol fees burned 1M+ RUNE since October 19, tightening supply. Node operators now govern upgrades, reducing centralization risks.

Conclusion

RUNE’s rebound reflects a mix of technical factors, strategic integrations, and network growth. While short-term volatility persists, its deflationary model and cross-chain dominance position it to capitalize on multi-chain demand.
Key watch: Confirmation of the V3.12 upgrade’s impact on swap efficiency and node incentives.

Deep Dive

1. Market-Wide Risk-Off Sentiment (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
The total crypto market cap fell 0.8% in 24h (to $3.39T), with Bitcoin dominance rising to 60.02% as capital rotated to safer assets. Altcoins like RUNE underperformed amid a "Fear" sentiment index (24/100) and derivatives open interest dropping 22.69% monthly.

What this means:
RUNE’s decline aligns with a risk-off environment, where traders reduce exposure to higher-beta assets. The altcoin season index fell 61.9% monthly to 24/100, signaling weak demand for non-BTC cryptos.

What to look out for:
Bitcoin’s price action and ETF inflows – a BTC rebound could stabilize altcoins.

2. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
RUNE broke below its 7-day SMA ($0.813) and 30-day SMA ($0.888), with the RSI7 at 25.57 (oversold). The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.00042) but remains below the signal line, suggesting weak momentum.

What this means:
The breach of key moving averages triggered stop-losses and algorithmic selling. Fibonacci levels show resistance at $0.915 (50% retracement), while support sits near the swing low of $0.624.

What to look out for:
A close above the pivot point ($0.750) could signal short-term relief.

3. Network Upgrade Speculation (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
THORChain’s V3.12 upgrade is scheduled this week, but undisclosed details have left investors wary. Binance suspended RUNE deposits/withdrawals until Nov 4 for a separate upgrade, thinning liquidity.

What this means:
While upgrades aim to improve functionality, unclear timelines and technical risks often lead to pre-event sell-offs. The Binance suspension likely amplified volatility by reducing trading options.

What to look out for:
Post-upgrade performance metrics (e.g., swap volume, node participation) to gauge protocol health.

Conclusion

RUNE’s drop reflects a mix of macro-driven risk aversion, technical breakdowns, and pre-upgrade jitters. While oversold conditions hint at potential stabilization, sustained recovery likely requires Bitcoin strength and successful delivery of V3.12 improvements.

Key watch: Can RUNE hold the $0.624–$0.700 zone, or will breaking lower confirm a bearish continuation?