THORChain (RUNE) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Integrations (Bullish Impact)

Overview: THORChain’s V3.12 upgrade (scheduled for early November 2025) aims to enhance cross-chain efficiency, while recent integrations with Solana and TRON expand its liquidity network. The protocol’s deflationary shift – ending block rewards in 2025 and burning swap fees – removes 28,500 RUNE daily from circulation (THORChain).

What this means: Increased chain integrations deepen liquidity pools, directly raising RUNE’s “deterministic value” (3:1 ratio of locked RUNE to external assets). Deflationary mechanics could amplify price upside if swap volume recovers from its current $36.9M/day (90% below 2024 peaks).

2. Competitive Pressures in DEX Landscape (Mixed Impact)

Overview: THORChain ranks 9th among top DEXs by volume, competing with Uniswap ($10B weekly volume) and dYdX ($1.45T derivatives activity). Its edge lies in native cross-chain swaps, but newer platforms like Shadow Exchange (Sonic) offer concentrated liquidity models.

What this means: While THORChain’s non-custodial swaps are unique, failure to scale liquidity pools (currently $289M TVL vs. Uniswap’s $4.2B) could limit fee generation. However, its recent 50% developer growth and $4.48B Q3 swap volume signal resilience (News).

3. Market Sentiment & Technicals (Neutral/Bearish Near-Term)

Overview: RUNE trades in a falling wedge since early 2025, with critical resistance at $0.856. The Fear & Greed Index at 25 (extreme fear) and 30-day altcoin season score (-30%) reflect broad crypto risk aversion.

What this means: A breakout above $0.85 could trigger a 200-300% rally (per Fibonacci extensions), but rejection here may prolong consolidation. RSI at 38 suggests oversold conditions, yet macro headwinds (total crypto market cap down 11.6% monthly) cap upside.

Conclusion

THORChain’s price will likely pivot on its ability to monetize cross-chain dominance through fee growth while navigating a risk-off market. The protocol’s deflationary tokenomics and technical setup offer asymmetric upside, but delayed upgrades or liquidity outflows pose risks.

Watch the $0.85 resistance level – a weekly close above it could confirm bullish momentum, while sustained fear sentiment might delay recovery.