Latest Raydium (RAY) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Solana Ecosystem Contagion (Bearish Impact)

Solana (SOL) fell 5.7% to $158, testing June lows, as its DEX leaders like Raydium faced spillover selling. SOL’s total value locked (TVL) dropped 12% this week to $3.9B (DeFi Llama), reducing fee revenue expectations for RAY.

What this means: RAY’s utility as Solana’s top DEX depends heavily on network activity. Declining TVL and SOL price weakness directly pressure RAY’s valuation.

Watch: SOL’s critical $126 support – a break could trigger deeper RAY losses.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)

RAY broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.44 (swing high: $2.19, low: $1.23). The 50-day SMA ($1.71) now acts as resistance.

• RSI 14: 45.53 (neutral but trending down)
• MACD: Bullish crossover fading (histogram: +0.031 vs. +0.042 yesterday)

What this means: Bears control short-term momentum. A close below $1.44 opens path to $1.23 yearly low.

3. Altcoin Liquidation Wave (Mixed Impact)

Crypto Fear & Greed Index held at 31 (“Fear”) as $125M in altcoin longs were liquidated. RAY’s 24h open interest dropped 8%, signaling trader caution (Coinalyze).

What this means: RAY faces structural headwinds from capital rotation into BTC/stablecoins, exacerbated by thin liquidity (turnover ratio: 0.23 vs. 0.41 for UNI).

Conclusion

RAY’s drop reflects Solana ecosystem stress and altcoin risk-off flows. While the WLFI partnership (USD1 stablecoin integration) offers long-term utility, near-term recovery hinges on SOL stabilizing above $150 and RAY reclaiming $1.60 resistance.

Key watch: Can RAY hold the 200-day EMA at $1.49? A breakdown here would confirm bearish control.

Deep Dive

1. USD1 Stablecoin Integration (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Raydium partnered with Trump-linked WLFI and memecoin platform Bonk on November 5 to expand USD1 stablecoin adoption on Solana (BSC News). USD1 trading pairs and liquidity pools launched on Raydium, with multi-million dollar incentives for traders and liquidity providers.

What this means:
- USD1’s $2.88B supply (as of Nov 6) could funnel new trading volume to Raydium, boosting fee revenue and RAY utility.
- The partnership targets Circle’s USDC dominance on Solana ($9B of $14.2B stablecoin market), positioning RAY as a liquidity hub.
- WLFI’s rewards program (8.4M RAY distributed) incentivizes short-term activity but risks dilution post-campaign.

What to look out for: USD1 adoption metrics on Raydium and whether WLFI’s debit card/app plans materialize by EOY 2025.

2. Oversold Technical Bounce (Mixed Impact)

Overview: RAY rebounded from key support levels after a 21% drop earlier in the week (Nov 7 Blockworks data). Key indicators:
- RSI-14: 39.31 (neutral, up from oversold 30s last week)
- MACD: Bullish crossover with histogram turning positive (+0.0147)
- Support: $1.23 (July swing low) held during Nov 8 dip

What this means:
- Short-term traders capitalized on oversold conditions, but RAY remains below critical resistance at $1.71 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
- Volume rose 37% to $79.7M, suggesting conviction in the bounce, but turnover ratio (0.19) signals moderate liquidity risk.

3. Solana Ecosystem Sentiment Shift (Neutral Impact)

Overview: SOL gained 3.2% in 24h, with Solana DeFi TVL recovering to $1.74B (+8% WoW). However, the Altcoin Season Index fell 9.38% to 29, indicating capital isn’t broadly rotating to alts.

What this means:
- Raydium benefits from Solana’s infrastructure upgrades (e.g., Firedancer testnet) but remains vulnerable to SOL price swings.
- Competing DEXs like Orca (+15% TVL WoW) and Jupiter’s dominance in swaps limit RAY’s upside.

Conclusion

RAY’s rally combines strategic USD1 integration, technical buying, and Solana’s resilience – but faces headwinds from bearish macro trends (Fear Index 29) and $1.71 resistance. Key watch: Can RAY hold above the 30-day SMA ($1.72) to confirm a trend reversal, or will profit-taking at $1.60–$1.65 trigger another dip?