Orca (ORCA) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Treasury Buybacks & Staking (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
A pending governance proposal (as of August 2025) aims to deploy 55,127 SOL (~$9.9M) from Orca’s treasury to fund ORCA buybacks and stake in an Orca validator. If passed, 30% of protocol fees will sustain buybacks, potentially reducing circulating supply.

What this means:
Buybacks could create upward pressure by lowering sell-side liquidity, especially if Solana DEX volumes rebound from their 2025 Q2 dip (-45.4% QoQ). Historical comps like Raydium (RAY) trade at higher P/S ratios (9.63x vs. ORCA’s 7.36x), suggesting room for revaluation if executed effectively.

2. Wavebreak Launchpad Traction (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Launched in July 2025, Wavebreak—a “human-first” token launchpad—blocked 25,000+ sniper bots in its first week. However, adoption faces stiff competition from Pump.fun and Raydium, which dominate Solana’s memecoin sector.

What this means:
Successful projects on Wavebreak (e.g., TUNA’s $1.7B volume debut) could drive ORCA utility and fee revenue. Conversely, failure to scale may see liquidity migrate to rivals, exacerbating ORCA’s -40.86% 90-day price decline.

3. Solana ETF & Regulatory Sentiment (Bullish Risk)

Overview:
The SEC’s decision on spot Solana ETFs (expected October 2025) could inject institutional capital into Solana DeFi. ORCA is a top-3 Solana DEX by volume, processing $13.9B in July 2025.

What this means:
Approval might mirror Ethereum’s ETF-driven 2024 rally, boosting ORCA’s TVL ($14.2B as of August 2025) and trading fees. However, delays or rejections could prolong the crypto market’s “Fear” sentiment (index: 24/100).

Conclusion

ORCA’s price hinges on executing buybacks to counter supply inflation, capturing memecoin launch demand via Wavebreak, and riding Solana’s regulatory tailwinds. Technicals show resistance at $1.77 (23.6% Fib), but a break above could signal trend reversal.

Watch: Can Wavebreak’s daily active users surpass 20K by December 2025?