Latest Pendle (PENDLE) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Whale Accumulation (Bullish Impact)

Overview: On-chain data shows whales (100k–1M PENDLE holders) increased balances by 7.64% to 2.86M tokens in the past week, while top 100 addresses added 2.62% (Yahoo Finance). This coincided with a 6.5% price rise during accumulation.

What this means: Large buyers likely identified $2.08–$2.30 as a value zone after PENDLE’s 57% 90-day drop. The Money Flow Index breaking its descending trendline signaled improved capital inflow, creating momentum for the rebound.

What to watch: Exchange outflows – if withdrawals continue, it reduces sell-side pressure.

2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Impact)

Overview: PENDLE trades at $2.29, just above its pivot point ($2.28). The RSI-14 at 34.5 nears oversold territory (30 threshold), while MACD shows weakening bearish momentum (-0.30 vs -0.28 signal line).

What this means: Traders may be positioning for a relief rally after the token fell 17.7% in 7 days. However, it remains below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $2.56), suggesting overhead resistance.

Key level: A close above $2.56 (7-day SMA) could confirm bullish reversal; below $2.08 (2025 low) risks new downtrend.

3. Protocol Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Pendle’s November 6 integration of nBASIS vaults (CoinMarketCap) enabled institutional-grade real-world asset (RWA) yield strategies, attracting $515M TVL to HyperEVM in 2.5 weeks.

What this means: New use cases for PENDLE in composable yield products may increase utility demand. However, the 24h price impact is likely secondary to technicals/whale moves.

Conclusion

PENDLE’s rebound appears driven by strategic accumulation near yearly lows and oversold technicals, amplified by growing RWA integration. While short-term momentum favors bulls, the token remains in a broader downtrend (-57% YTD).

Key watch: Can PENDLE hold $2.28 support ahead of November 13 US CPI data, which could impact DeFi sentiment?

Deep Dive

1. DeFi Contagion (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The Balancer protocol’s $128M hack on November 5 triggered a DeFi-wide liquidity crunch. Pendle PT tokens were heavily used in leveraged yield loops (borrow stablecoins → buy PT → repeat). As borrowing rates spiked 30-40%, these positions became unprofitable, forcing mass unwinding.

What this means: Pendle’s TVL and protocol revenue are directly tied to these strategies. The forced selling of PT tokens (converted back to PENDLE for exits) created downward price pressure. Source

Key watch: Balancer’s recovery plan and whether PENDLE’s $2.08 Fibonacci support holds.

2. Technical Breakdown (Neutral)

Overview: PENDLE broke below the critical $2.50 support level (held since November 4) on November 15. The 7-day RSI at 26.63 suggests oversold conditions, but the MACD histogram (-0.015) shows bearish momentum remains.

What this means: Technical traders are exiting positions after the breakdown. The next major support is the 2025 low of $2.08 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). A close below $2.08 could trigger algorithmic selling.

Key watch: Whether bulls defend $2.20-$2.25 zone (November 13-14 consolidation area).

3. Whale Activity (Mixed)

Overview: Despite the dip, whales accumulated 6.57M PENDLE ($18.3M) in the past week. The top 100 addresses now hold 249.27M PENDLE (15% of supply).

What this means: Large holders may be selling into retail panic (Bearish short-term) while positioning for a rebound. The Smart Money Index showed accumulation patterns before the drop, suggesting possible stop-loss hunting. Source

Key watch: Exchange netflows – Binance saw 1.349M PENDLE withdrawals on November 14 (bullish if OTC deals).

Conclusion

Pendle’s drop reflects DeFi’s leverage unwind colliding with technical breakdowns, amplified by whale-driven volatility. While oversold conditions suggest a potential bounce, the $2.08-$2.25 zone is critical for trend reversal.

Key watch: Can Pendle’s new Boros yield platform attract fresh TVL to offset leverage-driven outflows by November 17?