Deep Dive
1. Ethereum Migration Execution (Mixed Impact)
Overview: In September 2026, Harmony proposed sunsetting its original Layer 1 blockchain and migrating ONE to an Ethereum ERC-20 token via a final-block snapshot and airdrop (Harmony). The network sunset reportedly occurred on September 10, with migration steps like contract deployment and exchange relistings underway. This is a fundamental restructuring.
What this means: Successful, seamless migration could remove the overhang of the chain's security problems and re-rate ONE as a cleaner asset on Ethereum, potentially attracting new capital. However, any technical hiccups, delays, or disputes over the snapshot could shatter remaining trust and lead to rapid devaluation, making this a binary near-term price driver.
2. AI Video Pivot & Adoption (Bullish Impact)
Overview: Post-migration, Harmony plans to pivot to "The Remix Economy for AI Video," offering hardware subsidies and rewards to operators who stake ONE (kratos.crazy.one). This ambitious plan aims to generate tens of millions in revenue from a targeted million users.
What this means: This narrative has already fueled powerful rallies (e.g., a 94% surge in September 2026). If the team demonstrates early traction, user growth, or partnerships, it could create sustained demand for ONE as a utility token. Conversely, without quick evidence of execution, the current AI hype may fade, deflating the price.
3. Security Legacy & Exchange Access (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Harmony's price is burdened by a history of major exploits, including a $100M bridge hack in 2022 and an unauthorized mint of ~4B ONE in August 2026 (CoinMarketCap). This has led to reduced liquidity, including Binance delisting ONE for Brazilian users effective October 27, 2026.
What this means: Each security incident has permanently damaged institutional and retail trust, limiting upside. The Binance Brazil delisting is a concrete example of shrinking market access, which can lower trading volume and increase volatility. Until the migrated token proves secure and regains exchange support, this overhang will cap significant, sustained price appreciation.
Conclusion
ONE's path is bifurcated: a smooth migration and compelling AI video progress could unlock speculative rallies, while execution stumbles or further security issues would likely reinforce its downtrend. For holders, this translates to monitoring concrete migration milestones and early adoption metrics over hype.
Will the completed Ethereum migration by end-of-2026 finally decouple ONE's price from its troubled past?