dYdX (DYDX) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Buyback Surge & Tokenomics Shift (Bullish Impact)

Overview: dYdX governance approved tripling buybacks to 75% of protocol fees in November 2025, deploying ~$5M-$10M monthly to repurchase tokens. This follows a 25% buyback program that removed 5M DYDX from circulation.

What this means: Reduced supply (958M total) could counterbalance bearish emission schedules if trading activity rebounds. Historical data shows DeFi tokens with similar programs averaged 14% post-announcement gains (Nethermind Research).

2. US Expansion & Regulatory Gauntlet (Mixed Impact)

Overview: dYdX plans to launch spot trading for U.S. users by December 2025, cutting fees to 50-65 bps. However, perpetual contracts – its core product – remain blocked under current CFTC guidance.

What this means: Success hinges on evolving regulations under Trump’s crypto-friendly policies. While spot access could boost volumes 20-30% (Reuters), the lack of perps removes a key revenue driver.

3. Post-Migration Liquidity Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Despite 94% migration to dYdX Chain, ~41.7M ethDYDX remain stranded post-June 2025 bridge closure. These tokens (excluded from circulating supply) could create sell pressure if exchanges relist them as legacy assets.

What this means: Similar migrations (e.g., BNB’s ERC20 phaseout) saw 5-15% price dips from supply confusion. Bithumb’s current suspension highlights exchange-side operational risks (CoinMarketCap).

Conclusion

DYDX’s trajectory hinges on buyback efficacy offsetting legacy token risks and regulatory progress. While the 75% buyback creates structural scarcity, its impact requires sustained protocol revenue – currently challenged by -37% YTD trading volumes. Monitor December’s US launch metrics and Q1 2026 token burn data. Will dYdX’s bet on algorithmic supply management outpace the altcoin bear cycle?