Deep Dive
1. Broader Market Pressure
APT’s decline closely tracked a down day for crypto, with Bitcoin falling 1.46% and total market cap dropping 1.72%. The CMC Fear & Greed Index sits at 9 (“Extreme Fear”), reflecting fragile sentiment where altcoins often underperform. Analysts note the market is in a “liquidity-driven risk reset” with direction dominated by institutional ETF and derivatives flows.
What it means: APT moved largely with market beta, not due to a unique failure.
Watch for: Bitcoin reclaiming $70,000, which could stabilize altcoins.
2. Negative Ecosystem Developments
While no single news item caused the drop, two negative developments likely contributed. First, Aptos had a token unlock worth $12.07 million on Feb. 10, adding sell-side pressure. Second, Merkle Trade, the network's largest perpetual DEX, began shutting down, forcibly closing all positions by Feb. 10 (CoinDesk). This signals ecosystem strain.
What it means: Coin-specific headwinds amplified the market-driven sell-off.
3. Near-term Market Outlook
Technically, APT is testing the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement support at $0.992. Its price is below the 30-day SMA ($1.01), confirming a bearish near-term structure. The immediate trigger is Bitcoin's price action; Binance's liquidation heatmap shows $68,160 as a key level for BTC.
If APT holds $0.992, a bounce toward the $1.04 resistance (23.6% retracement) is possible. However, if Bitcoin breaks below $68,160 and APT loses its support, the next level is around $0.97.
What it means: The trend is bearish, with price action hinging on broader market stability.
Watch for: A daily close below $0.992 for confirmation of further downside.
Conclusion
Market Outlook: Bearish Pressure
APT’s drop is a combination of market-wide risk-off flows and coin-specific negative developments. The path forward depends heavily on Bitcoin finding a floor.
Key watch: Can Bitcoin defend the $68,160 liquidation level? If it fails, expect renewed selling pressure across altcoins like APT.