THORChain (RUNE) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview: THORChain added TRON and Solana support in Q3 2025, enabling swaps for $32B+ TRX/USDT liquidity. Upcoming XRP and TON integrations (roadmap) could further amplify demand for RUNE as the base settlement asset.

What this means: Each new chain increases RUNE’s utility as a liquidity hub. Historically, integrations like Avalanche (2022) correlated with 60-90% price rallies. Sustained TVL growth above $300M (current: $127M) would reinforce RUNE’s deterministic value model (THORChain Alerts).

2. Deflationary Pressures (Mixed Impact)

Overview: 5% of swap fees are burned – 1.1M RUNE burned YTD. However, node yields dropped 40% post-2025 block reward removal, risking validator attrition.

What this means: Burns offset inflation (max supply: 500M), but reduced node incentives (~12% APR) may weaken network security if bonders exit. Watch the node count (currently ~90) and bonded RUNE ($70M+) for stability cues.

3. Competitive Threats (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Portal’s $25M-funded HTLC swaps bypass RUNE’s vault model, while Chainflip and Maya Protocol target similar cross-chain niches.

What this means: THORChain’s 24h volume fell 62% to $35.6M post-Portal’s launch. Failure to maintain >50% market share in non-BTC/ETH swaps (currently 63%) could erode RUNE’s premium.

Conclusion

THORChain’s price will swing on its ability to monetize new chains against rising competition and node economics. While burns and integrations offer upside, Bitcoin’s dominance (58.8%) and altcoin aversion pose headwinds. Can RUNE’s deterministic value ($0.22 baseline) close the gap with its market price ($0.665) via adoption? Monitor Q1 2026’s swap volume and bonded node trends.