Latest MON (MON) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Kalshi Integration (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Kalshi enabled native MON and USDC deposits/withdrawals on Monad blockchain on January 7, 2026, allowing transfers at 10,000 TPS. This enhances MON's utility in prediction markets and DeFi.
What this means: Faster transactions reduce opportunity costs for traders, making MON more attractive for real-time applications. With Monad's TVL at $255M, this integration could increase network activity and token demand.

2. Technical Rebound (Bullish Impact)

Overview: MON's 14-day RSI hit 32.31 (near oversold) before the rally, while MACD showed a bullish crossover with histogram at +0.0001716.
What this means: These signaled exhaustion of selling pressure. The bounce from $0.00653 support aligned with historical reversals when RSI falls below 35. Volume rose 107% during the move, confirming buyer conviction.

3. Staking Incentives (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Bitget's MON Earn program (20% APR until Dec 7) and airdrop campaign reward holders who increase positions, per daily snapshots.
What this means: These mechanics reduce immediate sell pressure while creating artificial demand. Similar programs have historically provided short-term price support during token launches.

Conclusion

MON's rise reflects improved utility via Kalshi integration, technical recovery from oversold levels, and temporary demand from staking incentives – though these may wane post-December 7.
Key watch: Will Monad's transaction volume sustain above 2M daily after the Kalshi integration, indicating real adoption?

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: MON trades at $0.00701, below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.00773; 30-day SMA: $0.00952). The RSI-7 at 22.13 signals extreme oversold conditions, but momentum remains weak with a negative MACD histogram (-0.0000496).

What this means: Oversold RSI typically suggests a potential bounce, but sustained closes below the 200-day SMA ($0.01719) and Fibonacci 23.6% level ($0.01166) indicate entrenched bearish sentiment. The 24h volume of $998K (down 9.1%) reflects fading buyer interest.

What to watch: A break above $0.00773 (7-day SMA) could signal short-term relief. Failure to hold $0.00701 risks a drop to the November 2025 low of $0.00682.

2. Arthur Hayes’ Tokenomics Critique (Bearish Impact)

Overview: On December 1, Arthur Hayes reiterated warnings that MON’s “high fully diluted valuation ($3.08B) and low circulating supply (10.8%)” make it vulnerable to selloffs as locked tokens unlock starting mid-2026 (Hayes).

What this means: Hayes’ influence has magnified existing fears about MON’s token distribution, where 50.6% of supply is locked for insiders. This narrative has deterred new buyers and encouraged profit-taking among early investors.

3. Liquidation Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: A whale holding a 1.81M MON short ($7.67M) has pressured prices, while retail traders faced $1.9M in long liquidations on November 30 (Finbold).

What this means: Concentrated short positions and leveraged long unwinding created a feedback loop of selling. However, the whale’s overall portfolio remains profitable (+$2.08M), reducing incentives to cover shorts immediately.

Conclusion

MON’s decline reflects technical breakdowns, influential bearish commentary, and derivatives-driven volatility. While oversold conditions could spark a bounce, the token’s high FDV and unlocking schedule pose structural risks. Key watch: Monitor December 15–17 for potential sell pressure as CoinW’s zero-fee trading campaign concludes and staking rewards unlock.