Question 1

Why is MERL’s price down today? (09/11/2025)

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
**Merlin Chain (MERL) fell 14.39% in the past 24h**, underperforming a crypto market that rose 2.32%. Key drivers:

1. **Bithumb’s MERL suspension** (Nov 7) for network upgrades disrupted short-term liquidity.  
2. **Technical correction** after a 17.21% 7-day rally pushed RSI into overbought territory.  
3. **Broader Layer 2 sector weakness** (–4.46% on Oct 28) lingering amid Bitcoin dominance.

---

## Deep Dive  
### 1. Bithumb Network Upgrade Impact (Bearish Short-Term)  
**Overview:** South Korea’s Bithumb halted MERL deposits/withdrawals starting Nov 7 for upgrades aimed at improving security and scalability. While upgrades are long-term bullish, the 24h trading volume dropped 14.58% to $408.6M, signaling reduced liquidity during the suspension ([Bithumb Announcement](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/690dee7181629c586e5b961a)).

**What this means:** Temporary restrictions likely triggered sell-offs from traders reallocating funds. Historically, exchange halts create short-term volatility even if upgrades are positive.

**What to watch:** Resumption timeline and post-upgrade network performance.

---

### 2. Profit-Taking After Overbought Signals (Mixed)  
**Overview:** MERL’s 7-day rally (+17.21%) pushed its 7-day RSI to 70.48 (overbought). The price retraced to $0.359, below the 30-day SMA ($0.3449) but above the 200-day SMA ($0.1684).

**What this means:** Traders likely took profits near the $0.382 Fibonacci resistance. The MACD histogram (+0.003) still suggests bullish momentum, but weakening RSI (61.21 today vs 70.48) hints at cooling demand.

**Key level:** A close below $0.326 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) could signal deeper correction.

---

### 3. Layer 2 Sector Pressures (Bearish)  
**Overview:** Layer 2 tokens fell 4.46% on Oct 28, with MERL dropping 16.8% that day. Bitcoin dominance (+59.21%) and muted altcoin season sentiment (index: 31) have pressured high-beta tokens like MERL.

**What this means:** MERL’s correlation with L2 peers (e.g., Mantle, Zora) and reliance on Bitcoin’s performance amplify downside during risk-off phases.

---

## Conclusion  
MERL’s drop reflects a mix of Bithumb-driven liquidity constraints, technical profit-taking, and sector-wide headwinds. While upgrades could strengthen fundamentals, short-term sentiment hinges on Bitcoin’s stability and MERL’s ability to hold $0.326 support.

**Key watch:** Can MERL’s TVL (previously $1.2B) rebound post-upgrade to renew institutional interest?

Question 2

Why is MERL’s price up today? (08/11/2025)

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
Merlin Chain (MERL) rose 5.43% in the past 24h, outpacing the broader crypto market’s +1.61% gain. Key drivers include exchange support for network upgrades and technical momentum.

1. **Network Upgrade Support** – Bybit and Bithumb endorsed Merlin’s November 7 upgrade, boosting confidence.  
2. **Technical Breakout** – MERL broke key resistance levels, signaling bullish momentum.  
3. **BTC L2 Narrative** – Growing interest in Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions amid market-wide BTC dominance.

## Deep Dive  
### 1. Network Upgrade Support (Bullish Impact)  
**Overview:** Bybit and Bithumb announced support for Merlin Chain’s November 7 network upgrade, which introduces ZK-Rollups for improved scalability and security ([Bybit](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/690dde07f8f70344b97e81eb)). Bithumb temporarily paused MERL deposits/withdrawals during the upgrade but confirmed trading continuity.

**What this means:** Exchange backing signals institutional trust in Merlin’s tech roadmap. Upgrades aim to reduce transaction costs and enhance throughput for Bitcoin-native protocols, aligning with MERL’s utility as a governance and fee token. Historically, such upgrades correlate with short-term price rallies due to reduced sell pressure during suspensions.

**What to look out for:** Post-upgrade performance metrics (e.g., TPS, fees) and exchange deposit/withdrawal resumption timelines.

### 2. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)  
**Overview:** MERL broke above its 30-day SMA ($0.343) and Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level ($0.408). The RSI (14) at 59.97 suggests room for upward momentum before overbought conditions.

**What this means:** Technical traders often interpret breaks above moving averages and Fib levels as buy signals. The 24h trading volume of $478M (+5.43% vs. market cap) confirms liquidity-backed momentum. However, the MACD histogram (-0.0014) hints at potential near-term consolidation.

**What to look out for:** Sustained closes above $0.445 (swing high) could target $0.489 (127.2% Fib extension).

### 3. BTC Layer 2 Narrative (Mixed Impact)  
**Overview:** Bitcoin’s dominance hit 59.38% (up 0.5% weekly), driving interest in BTC-centric ecosystems. Merlin’s TVL growth (+213% since mainnet launch) and integrations (e.g., Sui Network’s M-BTC bridge) position it as a leading BTC L2 ([Merlin](https://x.com/MerlinLayer2/status/1958472404671574173)).

**What this means:** MERL benefits from Bitcoin’s market leadership but faces competition from projects like Stacks. The 24h altcoin season index (27) shows capital remains cautious, favoring high-conviction narratives like BTCfi.

## Conclusion  
MERL’s rally reflects a blend of technical momentum, exchange-backed upgrades, and Bitcoin’s dominance. While bullish signals dominate, monitor post-upgrade on-chain metrics and BTC’s price action for sustainability.

**Key watch:** Can MERL hold above $0.408 after the upgrade, or will profit-taking reverse gains?

Latest Merlin Chain (MERL) Price Analysis

Why is MERL’s price down today? (09/11/2025)

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. Bithumb Network Upgrade Impact (Bearish Short-Term)

2. Profit-Taking After Overbought Signals (Mixed)

3. Layer 2 Sector Pressures (Bearish)

Conclusion

Why is MERL’s price up today? (08/11/2025)

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. Network Upgrade Support (Bullish Impact)

2. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)

3. BTC Layer 2 Narrative (Mixed Impact)

Conclusion

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