Merlin Chain (MERL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Schedule (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
40% of MERL’s 2.1B supply (840M tokens) is allocated to ecosystem incentives, unlocking linearly over 48 months until 2028. Private investor and team unlocks (15.23% and 4.2%, respectively) add sell pressure through 2026.

What this means:
New supply entering circulation could suppress prices if demand doesn’t match the pace of unlocks. Historical data shows MERL dropped 13.4% after a $4.15M unlock in May 2025 (CoinMarketCap).

2. Bitcoin L2 Adoption (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Merlin’s Nov 7 upgrade introduces ZK-Rollup optimizations for faster BTC-native transactions, aligning with its “Merlin 2.0” vision to make Bitcoin programmable. Recent Sui integration expanded BTC liquidity across chains.

What this means:
Successful upgrades could attract developers to Merlin’s TVL ($3.6B peak), driving MERL utility for staking and fees. Bybit’s endorsement signals institutional confidence in BTCfi narratives (Kanalcoin).

3. Market Sentiment & BTC Correlation (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
MERL’s 136% 60-day rally mirrors Bitcoin’s resurgence, but the Fear & Greed Index (29/100) and altcoin season score (32/100) suggest fragile risk appetite.

What this means:
Positive BTC price action could lift MERL, but a market-wide pullback may hit high-beta L2 tokens hardest. MERL’s 10.9% 24h drop on Nov 10 already reflects this sensitivity.

Conclusion

MERL’s trajectory hinges on balancing supply inflation with Bitcoin L2 adoption spikes. The Nov 7 upgrade and post-unlock staking incentives (8%+ yield) are near-term catalysts. Watch the TVL-to-market-cap ratio post-upgrade: A sustained rise above its 2025 high of $3.6B TVL vs. $373M market cap would signal undervaluation. Can Merlin sustain developer momentum against Stacks and B² Network?