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CMC BITCOIN HALVING 2024

On April 2024 the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block

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BITCOIN HALVING EXPLAINED

Learn about the Bitcoin halving cycle, previous dates, and block reward schedule

The Bitcoin Halving is a pre-programmed event that reduces the reward given to crypto miners by half approximately every four years. The Halving is essential because it ensures that the supply of Bitcoin is kept in check and prevents inflation. The reduction of mining rewards means that the demand for Bitcoin is expected to increase, and its value is likely to surge in response. It is anticipated to happen every 210,000 blocks or roughly every four years, with the most recent halving occurred in May 2020, reducing the reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block. The Bitcoin Halving plays a crucial role in the long-term viability and scarcity of Bitcoin.

A LOOK BACK AT BITCOIN HALVINGS

The Bitcoin block reward halves every 210,000 blocks or approximately every 4 years. This regular reduction in Bitcoin's inflation rate is called the "halving"

Nov 28th, 2012: The First Slice

BTC Price: $12.20

The first halving sliced off the first 50% of the Bitcoin mining reward – from 50 to 25 Bitcoins per block. Back then, the impact of the halving was still not priced in. The community was watching anxiously, as the closing price on the halving day was ($12.20). In the months after the first halving in 2012, the network hash rate and difficulty declined as less profitable miners turned off machines to reduce costs.

However, by early 2013, Bitcoin kicked off its first major bull run, surging from $13 to over $1,000 by year's end. The fears of miner capitulations were proven largely unfounded. The network hummed along, and the Bitcoin community learned an early lesson: Halvings are bullish for the Bitcoin network and the price of Bitcoin.

July 9th, 2016: Bracing for a Boom

BTC Price: $640.56

The second halving reduced the block reward by another 50% – from 25 to 12.5 BTC. The community anticipated another bull run driven by the halving, as the memories of 2012 were still fresh. Many predicted a price boom. But some also warned that a smaller mining reward could depress mining profits and harm the network. We all know what happened next…

Bitcoin had an incredible bull run in 2017. Its price went up to nearly $20,000 by the end of the year, and this was the first time cryptocurrencies were in the global limelight. That set the stage for an even bigger bull run four years down the road…

May 11th, 2020: One Million More

BTC Price: $8,605

The third halving halved the mining reward again. So predictable, yet so ground-breaking. With the mining reward slashed to 6.25 BTC per block, Bitcoin was getting ready for another bull run. Speculation abounded about growing institutional adoption and Bitcoin as a hedge for inflation. 

After the halving, the price of Bitcoin surged once again. The community was ready by this time – they had learned the lesson already. Halving day was eagerly anticipated but the real celebrations did not kick off until the incredible bull run in 2021. Many anticipate history will repeat itself in 2024.

2024 and Beyond

BTC Price: $25,764 (Sept 7th, 2023)

The next halving, who would’ve guessed it, will reduce the mining reward again – to 3.125 BTC per block. The Bitcoin community is eagerly anticipating this milestone. It will make Bitcoin’s supply even scarcer and, hopefully, introduce a new bull market.

Bitcoin’s built-in halvings stand out as a unique feature that adds predictable control over its supply issuance. Other cryptocurrencies have tried to copy its model, but no other blockchain has had the same success with halvings and inflation reductions as Bitcoin.

Of course, some critics have argued that halvings are unnecessary, and Bitcoin’s supply could have simply been capped at 21 million with all units released immediately.  But Satoshi wisely recognized the importance of gradual, rule-based issuance and its role in increasing adoption and fairness. Bitcoin would not be where it is today without halvings.

Halvings also forge links between each generation of Bitcoin users. Those who participated in 2012’s first halving have watched the community grow and pass new milestones. And those who joined post-2020 look to earlier halvings for context on Bitcoin’s roots. Halvings remind the community of how far we've come, and where we have yet to go.

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FAQ (FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS)

Your burning Bitcoin Halving questions answered for you

Why does the Bitcoin Halving happen?
The halving is hardcoded into Bitcoin's protocol to control the supply and inflation rate. By reducing the block reward and slowing the supply growth, the halving gives Bitcoin a predictable inflation rate and makes it a scarce asset.
How does the Halving affect Bitcoin Miners?
The halving cuts miners' profits in half in terms of coins. If the halving reduces the reward for each mined block, their profit margins shrink if prices don’t rise. This forces miners to find cheaper electricity, use more efficient equipment, or shut down operations. While challenging, these pressures ultimately incentivize miners to innovate and make Bitcoin mining more energy efficient and decentralized over the long run.
What determines when the Halving happens?
Halvings happen every 210,000 blocks. This takes about four years between halvings based on the 10-minute average block time. The event is not based on a specific date.
What are the dates of Halvings?
There have been three halvings so far: November 2012: Block reward decreases from 50 to 25 / July 2016: Block reward decreases from 25 to 12.5 / May 2020: Block reward decreases from 12.5 to 6.25
Why is it also called “the Halvening”?
The playful term "halvening" serves to engage and educate newcomers about the significance of the event. It's a term that sparks curiosity and can lead to deeper exploration and understanding of Bitcoin's monetary policy. In it’s early days, most Bitcoin related conversations happened on niche forums or reddit. It is unclear when the word “halvening” was first coined.
Why did Satoshi Nakamoto want Bitcoin to have a planned coin issuance schedule?
Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, designed Bitcoin with a planned coin issuance schedule for several reasons: Controlled Supply: One of the primary motivations behind Bitcoin was to create a currency that is not subject to government or central bank control. Traditional fiat currencies can be printed at will by central banks, leading to inflation. By having a fixed supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is designed to be deflationary, meaning its value should increase over time as demand increases, assuming constant or growing demand. Incentive for Miners: The issuance of new bitcoins as block rewards provides an incentive for miners to secure the network. Miners are compensated with newly minted bitcoins for every block they mine. This reward started at 50 bitcoins per block and halves approximately every four years in an event known as the "halving." This ensures that even as transaction fees become a more significant portion of miner compensation, there's still an incentive to mine in the early days of Bitcoin. Predictability: A known issuance schedule provides certainty and predictability. Everyone can verify and anticipate the total supply and current issuance rate, which can instill more trust in the system. This transparency contrasts with central banks' often opaque decisions about monetary policy and money printing. Decentralization: By ensuring that new coins are issued at a predictable and decreasing rate, the power dynamics within the Bitcoin network are more likely to remain decentralized. If, for example, issuance was arbitrary or could be changed easily, it might centralize power in the hands of a few influential participants. Economic Model: The halving events, which reduce the block reward, are designed to simulate the scarcity and resource exhaustion found in commodities like gold. Just as gold becomes harder and more expensive to mine over time, so too does Bitcoin. This scarcity can drive demand and potentially increase the value of each coin as the supply becomes more limited. Protection Against Inflation: With a capped supply, Bitcoin aims to be a store of value, especially in contrast to fiat currencies that can be devalued through inflation. The predictable issuance schedule ensures that the market can anticipate and adjust to changes in supply, potentially leading to a more stable price in the long run.
Has Bitcoin's issuance schedule changed since it was described in the White Paper?
Bitcoin's issuance schedule, as described in the original white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto, has not changed. The white paper outlined a deflationary issuance model where the number of new bitcoins created and earned by miners with each new block would halve approximately every four years.
Will the 2024 Halving increase the price of Bitcoin?
Historically, Bitcoin's price has tended to increase following halving events. For instance, the price saw significant increases in the years following the previous halvings. It is difficult to make price predictions for 2024 and 2025, but many people believe that crypto’s four year cycles are based around Bitcoin’s halving schedule and hope that the 2024 halving will kick off a new bull market.
Does a supply reduction impact price?
The halving effectively reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created, decreasing the overall supply increase over time. According to basic economic principles, a decrease in supply, with demand remaining constant or increasing, tends to drive prices higher. There are many factors that come together to increase the price of an asset, but many people in crypto highlight the halving as having a major impact when they make price predictions.
Does the Bitcoin halving create price volatility?
Market participants are aware of the halving events and their potential impact on supply, and this anticipation can be priced in before the halving actually occurs. Some investors may buy Bitcoin in the lead-up to a halving, predicting that its price will increase afterward. This type of speculation can lead to high volatility, and price movements may not always be rational or based on economic fundamentals.
How many halving cycles will there be until all 21 million Bitcoin have been created?
We can assume that the cycle continues with a halving approximately every four years. However, it's important to note that the exact timing of future halvings may vary slightly due to the way the Bitcoin network adjusts its difficulty and the actual block production rate. Therefore, the above estimates are approximate, and you would need to keep an eye on the Bitcoin network to get the most up-to-date information. Nevertheless, there will be approximately 32 halvings in total until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins is reached.
Is the Bitcoin Halving an important factor in the stock to flow model?

Yes, the Bitcoin halving is a crucial factor in the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. The S2F model is often used in the context of Bitcoin to predict the price based on the scarcity of the supply. Here's how the halving event impacts the model:

Impact on Stock-to-Flow Ratio: The stock-to-flow ratio is a measure that compares the total amount of a commodity (stock) against the amount of that commodity produced annually (flow). In Bitcoin's case, the “stock“ is the total number of bitcoins in circulation, and the “flow“ is the annual production rate of new bitcoins. When a halving occurs, the production rate (flow) is halved, thereby increasing the stock-to-flow ratio.

Scarcity and Value: The S2F model posits that scarcity, as measured by the stock-to-flow ratio, drives value. As the rate of new Bitcoin creation slows down due to the halving, the increased scarcity is theorized to lead to an increase in Bitcoin's price, assuming demand remains the same or increases.

Historical Correlation: Historically, the Bitcoin price has shown a significant increase following halving events, which has been attributed to the reduced supply of new bitcoins entering the market. This observation has been a key factor in the popularity of the S2F model among some cryptocurrency investors and analysts.

Predictive Limitations: While the S2F model has been popular for its historical predictive success and promoted heavily in the crypto community by an anonymous financial analyst going by the name Plan B who publishes updated charts regularly it's important to note that it primarily considers supply factors and does not account for demand-side changes, regulatory impacts, broader economic factors, or technological advancements, which can all significantly affect Bitcoin’s price.

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