Reserve

Ethereum

Bitcoin

Wednesday

<p>The documented part: the US Federal Reserve left its target range for the policy rate unchanged at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on Wednesday evening at 7 pm German time, by ten votes to two, and the average staking yield on Ether stood at 2.63 percent in the third quarter. Our assessment follows further down: the gap between those two numbers explains the outflows from the American Ether funds better than any chart level, and it works out differently for investors in the euro area than for investors in dollars.</p>
<p>Ether was trading at around $2,357 on Wednesday evening, up 0.5 percent over 24 hours (as of October 28, data from CoinGecko). Over seven days it is down 6.6 percent, over 30 days down 12.8 percent. Where the price can point over a horizon of months is set out in our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/prediction/ethereum-price-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethereum price prediction</a>. For the coming days, though, the more important quantity is not a level on the chart but an interest rate.</p>
<h2 id="the-fed-holds-at-3-75-to-4-00-percent-two-members-wanted-a-hike">The Fed holds at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, two members wanted a hike</h2>
<p>The Open Market Committee decided to leave the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. That is set out in the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Federal Reserve statement of October 28, 2026</a>. The vote ended ten to two. What stands out is the direction of the two dissents: Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack argued for raising the target range by a quarter point. Neither member wanted a cut.</p>
<p>On the economy, the statement says activity is expanding at a strong pace and that inflation remains elevated. In September the Fed raised the rate by a quarter point. Anyone who had bet on easing soon received the opposite of a signal that evening.</p>
<p>For the crypto market the decisive point is not the decision itself but its reasoning. A target range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent means short-dated dollar deposits continue to earn in that region. That rate is the yardstick against which institutional investors measure every return they could earn elsewhere.</p>
<h2 id="what-the-rate-decision-changes-for-ether-but-not-for-bitcoin">What the rate decision changes for Ether but not for Bitcoin</h2>
<p>Bitcoin pays no running yield. If the dollar rate rises, that raises the cost of holding, but there is no direct comparison figure. With Ether it is different, and in that lies the distinction most market reports pass over.</p>
<p>Ether can be staked. If you post your coins as stake and thereby help confirm blocks, you receive a running distribution for it. Staking describes exactly that process: Ether is locked up to secure the blockchain and earns a yield for doing so. That places Ether alongside interest-bearing assets, and that is precisely where it gets valued.</p>
<p>That produces a simple calculation any investor can work through, and at present it does not come out in Ether's favour.</p>
<h2 id="staking-yield-of-2-63-percent-the-sum-against-the-dollar-and-the-euro">Staking yield of 2.63 percent: the sum against the dollar and the euro</h2>
<p>According to an analysis by the asset manager Bitwise, reported by The Block, the average annualised staking yield on Ether stood at 2.63 percent in the third quarter of 2026. In the previous quarter it was 2.81 percent. The yield has therefore fallen by 0.18 points while the dollar rate rose in September.</p>
<p>Setting the two numbers side by side produces the following picture, calculated on the rates in force today:</p>
<ul>
 <li>Against the lower bound of the Fed's target range of 3.75 percent, the staking yield trails by 1.12 percentage points.</li>
 <li>Against the midpoint of the range at 3.875 percent, it is 1.25 percentage points short.</li>
 <li>Against the European Central Bank's deposit rate of 2.50 percent, it is 0.13 percentage points ahead.</li>
</ul>
<p>The ECB's deposit rate has stood at 2.50 percent since September 16, 2026, as set out in the <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">European Central Bank's overview of key rates</a>. That yields a finding most reports lose sight of: an American institutional investor calculating in dollars gives up a good percentage point of interest by staking. An investor in the euro area gives up nothing and is in fact narrowly ahead.</p>
<p>That difference is not an arithmetic game, because it explains why American fund investors are pulling money out while the staked amount keeps growing. Which providers leave which yield standing after fees is shown by our overview of the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-staking-rewards-platforms/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">best staking platforms</a>; the providers' deductions decide whether anything of those 2.63 percent still amounts to a lead over the euro deposit rate.</p>
<p>One date is coming on top of that: the ECB Governing Council meets on October 28 and 29, with the announcement scheduled for Thursday at 2.15 pm. If the deposit rate stays at 2.50 percent, staking's narrow lead in the euro area stays in place as well.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ethereum_prognose_staking_rendite_fed_zins_28_oktober_2026_2_1843bcb84f.webp" alt="Large station clock without numerals on a dark hall ceiling, the minute hand just short of vertical" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  The Fed's rate decision came at 7 pm German time, with the ECB following on Thursday at 2.15 pm.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="43-8-million-ether-staked-and-the-amount-keeps-growing">43.8 million Ether staked, and the amount keeps growing</h2>
<p>At the end of the third quarter, according to the same Bitwise analysis, 43.8 million Ether were staked, just under 36 percent of total supply. In the first nine months of 2026, 7.96 million Ether were added.</p>
<p>That is the real contradiction of this October. The yield is falling, the dollar rate is rising, and yet ever more Ether moves into stake. Read staking purely as a bet on interest rates and that cannot be explained.</p>
<p>The explanation lies in the role the stake plays. Staked Ether is not available for trading. Every million that moves into stake tightens the freely tradable supply. For holders with a long horizon the distribution is therefore only one half of the sum; the other is the scarcity that results from it. A rate decision in Washington changes nothing about that in the short run.</p>
<h2 id="etf-outflows-of-148-8-million-across-two-trading-days">ETF outflows of $148.8 million across two trading days</h2>
<p>On the other side stand the American spot funds, and there the direction is unambiguous. According to data from SoSoValue, reported by several industry outlets, the US spot ETFs on Ether recorded a net outflow of $60.2 million on October 27. On October 26, $88.6 million had already flowed out. Together that makes $148.8 million across two consecutive trading days.</p>
<p>Within that sum the movement ran unevenly. BlackRock's fund lost around $93.3 million on October 27, while the Fidelity fund gathered $28.6 million. For comparison, a look at the previous week: on October 22, $110.6 million flowed out, and on October 23, $4.4 million came in.</p>
<p>Total assets in the Ether spot funds most recently stood at $14.18 billion, corresponding to around 4.95 percent of Ether's market capitalisation. Data providers put cumulative net inflows since launch at different levels, with SoSoValue citing $12.57 billion and Farside around $12.66 billion. We give the range rather than presenting either value as settled.</p>
<p>The contrast with Bitcoin is marked: on that same October 27, the American Bitcoin funds gathered $176 million. The money is therefore not leaving the crypto market, it is re-sorting itself within the market.</p>
<h2 id="how-a-fund-outflow-works-through-to-the-price">How a fund outflow works through to the price</h2>
<p>That an outflow depresses the price is often asserted and rarely explained. The mechanism is manageable. When an investor hands back fund units, the fund has to raise liquidity. To do so an authorised participant returns units to the fund and receives Ether or the dollar equivalent in exchange. The Ether freed up in the process lands on the market.</p>
<p>What matters is the ratio to trading volume. Measured against daily Ether turnover, $60 million is a small amount that on its own barely forces a price move. The effect arises through duration: several outflow days in a row take away the buy side that reliably stepped in during the preceding months. That is precisely the pattern in place at the moment.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ethereum_prognose_staking_rendite_fed_zins_28_oktober_2026_3_93c7cb9723.webp" alt="Row of high-voltage pylons at night, the lines running into the depth of the image" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  Around 43.8 million Ether are posted as validator stake in the network and secure its operation.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="the-price-at-2-357-and-the-session-high-at-2-380">The price at $2,357 and the session high at $2,380</h2>
<p>Over the past 24 hours Ether moved between $2,324 and $2,380 (as of October 28, data from CoinGecko). That makes a daily range of around 2.4 percent, a quiet day for Ether.</p>
<p>On the upside the session high of $2,380 is the first hurdle that is grounded in the trading itself rather than in a drawn line. On the downside sits the session low at $2,324. Both values come from live trading and are therefore verifiable, unlike price targets circulating without an author.</p>
<p>The comparison with Bitcoin places the situation: over 30 days Ether has lost 12.8 percent, Bitcoin 3.4 percent. The difference of 9.4 percentage points is the real story of this month, and it fits the fund movement above.</p>
<h2 id="the-comparison-with-where-things-stood-on-october-27">The comparison with where things stood on October 27</h2>
<p>On Tuesday we reported in this spot on the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/ethereum-price-prediction-stablecoin-outflow-october-27-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">outflow of $2.9 billion from stablecoins</a>. Since then the picture has shifted on two points.</p>
<p>First the price: on October 27 Ether stood at $2,320.67 at the start of the day, and by now it is around $2,357. That is a gain of 1.6 percent, and the price has not fallen below the previous week's low since. Second the reason: the peg back then was liquidity in the stablecoin market, today it is the interest rate. Both pull in the same direction, namely tighter funds for risk assets, but by different routes. If you read Tuesday's article, you know the supply side; the rate decision adds the demand side to it.</p>
<h2 id="staking-income-and-the-tax-office-receipt-exemption-limit-holding-period">Staking income and the tax office: receipt, exemption limit, holding period</h2>
<p>Anyone working the sum above through for themselves should not leave tax out of it, because it shifts the result noticeably. The following points reflect the position as tax guides and the German Federal Ministry of Finance describe it; they are no substitute for advice in an individual case.</p>
<p>In Germany, staking income counts as other income under section 22 number 3 of the Income Tax Act. It is taxed at the personal rate, not at the 25 percent withholding rate. What governs is the market value at the time of receipt, and under the Ministry of Finance letter of March 6, 2025, receipt is the moment at which the income is claimed.</p>
<p>For small amounts an exemption limit of 256 euros per calendar year applies. The word limit is to be taken literally: once it is reached, the entire amount is taxable and not merely the portion above it. The limit also applies to all income from services taken together, not per exchange or per token.</p>
<p>On a later sale of the Ether received, the one-year holding period applies. Staking does not extend it to ten years; that older reading is obsolete. We keep the current state of the political debate on this on our page on the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-holding-period-reform-status/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto holding period</a>.</p>
<p>In concrete terms that means this for the sum above: at a personal tax rate of 42 percent, around 1.53 percent remains after tax out of a gross yield of 2.63 percent, before the provider's fee is deducted. With that, the lead over the euro deposit rate disappears. If you want to keep the evidence straight, you need an unbroken record of every receipt.</p>
<h2 id="our-assessment-of-the-rate-gap">Our assessment of the rate gap</h2>
<p>From the editorial point of view, the gap of 1.12 percentage points between the staking yield and the dollar rate is the most solid reason for Ether's weakness against Bitcoin this month. Three pieces of evidence support that: the fund outflows of $148.8 million across two days alongside simultaneous inflows of $176 million into Bitcoin funds, the decline in the staking yield from 2.81 to 2.63 percent, and the Fed's September rate increase, which frames both movements in time.</p>
<p>Against it stands the staked amount, which has grown by 7.96 million Ether in 2026 even though the yield fell. Anyone holding Ether for the long term is evidently not guided by the dollar money market. As long as that holds, the rate gap mainly hits short-horizon fund money, not the existing holdings.</p>
<p>What follows from this: whether the rate rises or falls, the sum shifts in the same direction. The two dissents on the Open Market Committee, which wanted a hike, are the opposite of an early signal for that. This is explicitly not a recommendation to buy or sell; crypto assets can lose their entire value.</p>
<h2 id="staking-and-rates-enough-against-the-euro-not-against-the-dollar">Staking and rates: enough against the euro, not against the dollar</h2>
<ol>
 <li>Work out your own staking yield after fees. If your provider takes a share of the income, your net figure sits below the 2.63 percent from the Bitwise analysis. The deductions of individual providers are set out in our comparison of the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-staking-rewards-platforms/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">best staking platforms</a>.</li>
 <li>Record the receipt of every payout with date and price while the year is still running. The exemption limit of 256 euros applies to all income from services together, and the evidence is harder to assemble in January than it is today. Suitable tools are set out in our comparison of <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/crypto-tax-software/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto tax software</a>.</li>
 <li>Mark Thursday, 2.15 pm, as your date. If the ECB cuts the deposit rate below 2.50 percent, staking's lead in the euro area grows; if it raises the rate, that lead disappears. Where you trade Ether and at what cost is set out in our comparison of the <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/exchange-comparison/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">best crypto exchanges</a>.</li>
</ol>
<p><em>(As of October 28, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)</em></p>

Ethereum staking at 2.63 percent: what investors need to know

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