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April

<p>Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on Friday, October 23, as Brent crude reached $116 per barrel. Cointelegraph described it as the highest Brent price since March 19. The price dipped to $80,988 before recovering to about $81,600.</p>
<p>Bitcoin then lost more ground over the weekend. On Saturday, a wave of forced long selling pushed it to a weekly low of $79,107, its first trade below $80,000 since October 15. The Block reported that crypto longs lost $404 million in four hours. Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 within a couple of hours and traded near $80,850 on Sunday morning.</p>
<h3 id="what-moved-the-market-on-friday">What Moved the Market on Friday</h3>
<p>US stocks opened lower on Friday. Worries about AI-sector spending weighed on equities, and oil rose on fears that Washington could renew strikes on Iran around the midterm elections. WTI crude passed $102, its highest since September 16.</p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq 0.2% and the Dow 1.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed below 5% after touching 4.939% on Thursday, its lowest since September 23.</p>
<p>Economist Robin Brooks pointed to an unusual gap between oil prices and physical supply. Persian Gulf flows were near pre-war levels, and Saudi exports exceeded their pre-war average. He read the price as a large risk premium, which means it could fall quickly if tensions ease.</p>
<h3 id="the-technical-picture">The Technical Picture</h3>
<p>Analyst Keith Alan of Material Indicators watched the 50-day simple moving average at $81,781. Bitcoin had slipped under it, and bulls needed a daily close back above. He expected a retest of $78,000 to $80,000 if they failed.</p>
<p>Bitcoin did not reclaim the line. It still sat roughly $950 below the 50-day average on Sunday. The $80,000 to $81,500 zone also matters because it holds the average cost basis of spot Bitcoin ETF investors.</p>
<p>Analyst Benjamin Cowen added a second marker. He said a weekly close below $83,000 on October 25 would strengthen his bearish view for the rest of 2026. That level was already out of reach.</p>
<h3 id="how-the-oil-shock-began">How the Oil Shock Began</h3>
<p>The link between oil and Bitcoin traces back to the US-Iran war. The US and Israel struck Iran over a weekend in late February and early March. Bitcoin fell to $66,700 on March 2 as Brent jumped more than 6% to $77.50.</p>
<p>Iran then moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, the route for a large share of the world’s seaborne oil. Brent reached $119 on March 19 after attacks on Gulf energy facilities. Bitcoin dropped below $70,000 that day, and analysts warned of $200 oil if the strait stayed shut.</p>
<p>Relief came in waves. On March 25, Bitcoin steadied above $71,000 after the US drafted a 15-point peace plan and oil fell under $100. Brent slid to about $94 on April 8 on easing fears.</p>
<p>The relief did not last. Brent hit $126 intraday on April 30 after reports that President Trump was briefed on military options. Bitcoin fell toward $75,000 that day. Analysts said then that Bitcoin would struggle above $80,000 until Brent fell below $100.</p>
<h3 id="why-bitcoin-still-trades-near-80000">Why Bitcoin Still Trades Near $80,000</h3>
<p>Bitcoin has since climbed above that $80,000 mark. It traded near $85,500 in early October and set a weekly high of $84,856 on Wednesday, October 21, after a short squeeze. That rally faded within days, and the price now sits about 28% below its level a year ago, near $111,700.</p>
<p>Oil is only part of the weakness. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635 million on Friday alone. Outflows reached $909.7 million over two weeks, which wiped out October’s gains in the funds. Falling ETF demand removes a steady buyer just as macro risks rise.</p>
<h3 id="reasons-for-caution-and-for-hope">Reasons for Caution and for Hope</h3>
<p>The bearish case is simple. Oil above $100 feeds inflation fears and keeps pressure on interest rates. Bitcoin has traded with tech stocks all week, so an AI-driven equity selloff hits it too. Weekly indicators lean bearish.</p>
<p>The bullish case rests on support. The $79,500 to $80,500 band has stopped declines several times, and Saturday’s dip closed back above it. Yields are easing, and the oil premium could unwind quickly if a US-Iran deal emerges. Bitcoin rose on peace headlines in March and April.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday and Friday’s options expiry add event risk this week. Traders will watch whether Bitcoin reclaims $81,800 or breaks below $79,000. A drop under $79,000 would end the September-October range and expose the mid-$70,000s.</p>

Bitcoin Tests the $81,000 Floor as Oil Hits Its Highest Since March

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