<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/tag/prediction-market" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Prediction markets</a>, platforms where users trade contracts on whether specific real-world events will happen, are on track for explosive growth over the next decade. But the biggest driver won't be sports betting.
Research and brokerage firm <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bernstein-has-a-new-message-for-robinhood-stock-investors" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bernstein</a> projects annual prediction market trading volumes will surge from an estimated $410 billion in 2026 to $10 trillion by 2035. That's according to a note to clients <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-09-22-bernstein-sees-annual-prediction-market-volumes-hitting-10-trillion-by-2035-as-financial-assets-overtake-sports-416030" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">published Tuesday</a>, Sept. 22.&nbsp;
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani expect volumes to compound at roughly 70% annually between 2025 and 2035.&nbsp;
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<h2 id="financial-assets-set-to-overtake-sports">Financial assets set to overtake sports</h2>
The most significant shift in Bernstein's forecast is what people are betting on. Sports currently dominate, accounting for about 61% of volumes in 2025, but that share is expected to drop to 38% by 2035.&nbsp;
Taking its place: financial assets including crypto, equities, and commodities, which the firm sees growing from about 12% of volumes in 2025 to 49% by 2035.&nbsp;
That transition is already underway. Short-duration contracts, including 15-minute <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> markets, have helped push 2026 volumes higher, while new product categories are emerging.&nbsp;
Bernstein's analysts pointed to KPI markets, which let users trade on individual corporate metrics like subscriber growth or deliveries rather than stock prices.&nbsp;
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<h2 id="kalshi-and-polymarket-carve-out-different-niches">Kalshi and Polymarket carve out different niches</h2>
The two dominant platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are seeing distinct trading patterns. <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/tag/kalshi" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Kalshi</a> is a regulated, centralized U.S. exchange, while Polymarket is a decentralized, crypto-native platform.&nbsp;
Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume jumped from under 5% in January to roughly 20% in August, and commodity trading volume on the platform exploded from under $2 million in all of 2025 to approximately $590 million in 2026 year-to-date.&nbsp;
Bernstein estimates the addressable market for financial-asset contracts at roughly $700 trillion in 2025, rising to $900 trillion by 2035, with prediction markets expected to capture just 0.5% of that pool. Regulatory clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets, the firm noted, is unlikely before 2027–28.
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Analyst sees $10T prediction boom but doubts U.S. markets

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