Optimism

Derive

bullish

Bitcoin

<p>After twelve months of caution, Bitcoin options traders change direction. Since August 20, they pay more to bet on a rise in BTC than to protect against a decline, an unprecedented shift in a year. The signal comes while bitcoin trades around $78,278, far from its peak above $126,000 in October 2025. Between dominance of call options, increase in futures positions, and bets concentrated under $100,000, the derivatives market shows renewed but still measured optimism.</p>
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  <h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In Brief</h2>
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   <li>Bitcoin options traders become bullish again after twelve months of caution.</li>
   <li>Calls now dominate puts and account for 61.39 % of the open interest.</li>
   <li>Bitcoin futures open interest reaches $52.64 billion.</li>
   <li>Bullish bets concentrate between $78,000 and $100,000, indicating still measured optimism.</li>
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<h2 id="in-the-options-market-bullish-sentiment-takes-over">In the options market, bullish sentiment takes over</h2>
<p>The clearest signal comes from the 25-delta skew, an indicator comparing the price <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/options-data-signals-growing-risk-for-bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">of options</a> for calls and puts with comparable market exposure. According to Derive data shared in the source, this volatility bias turned positive on August 20. Traders now accept paying a higher premium for call options, which allow exposure to bitcoin’s rise, rather than for put options used as protection against a drop. Thus, the shift marks a break after twelve months when caution dominated this market segment.</p>
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<p>Open positions confirm this reading. Indeed, call options represent 305,530.06 BTC, or 61.39% of the open interest recorded, versus 192,126.29 BTC, or 38.61%, for put options. The gap is also visible in twenty-four-hour trading: 18,892.23 BTC of call options were traded, compared to 12,497.93 BTC of put options. For September, positioning hovered around 1.8 calls for one put. This asymmetry reflects a more aggressive market, without constituting a certain forecast for BTC’s rise.</p>
<p>Three data points <a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-options-traders-turn-bullish-for-the-first-time-in-12-months/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">summarize</a> the shift in Bitcoin options positioning :</p>
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 <li>61.39% of open interest is now made up of calls, versus 38.61% puts ;</li>
 <li>18,892.23 BTC of calls traded over twenty-four hours, versus 12,497.93 BTC of puts ;</li>
 <li>September positioning reached about 1.8 calls for one put.</li>
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<h2 id="futures-positions-reach-52-64-billion">Futures positions reach $52.64 billion</h2>
<p>The futures market provides another measure of Bitcoin derivatives activity. Its open interest reaches 676,820 BTC, or $52.64 billion, after a 2.33% increase over twenty-four hours. Binance holds 142,870 BTC, valued at $11.11 billion, or 21.1% of the total. CME follows with 108,630 BTC, or $8.45 billion. Gate represents $4.94 billion, Bybit $4.83 billion, MEXC $4.39 billion, and OKX $2.78 billion.</p>
<p>Variations between platforms remain uneven. Over twenty-four hours, open interest increases by 1.66% on Binance and 1.41% on CME, while Gate reports a 3.03% decrease. BingX stands out with an 80.18% increase. In the short term, the overall movement loses momentum as open interest falls 0.30% over one hour and 0.15% over four hours. These data describe an increase in open positions during the day, without uniform progression across all platforms and timeframes observed.</p>
<h2 id="h-between-70-000-and-100-000-traders-map-out-their-scenarios">Between $70,000 and $100,000, traders map out their scenarios</h2>
<p>Preferred strike prices help specify what this return of optimism means. For December, Derive records about $710 million positioned at $80,000 and $530 million at $100,000. On Deribit, the September 25 call at $70,000 concentrates 10,956.7 BTC, ahead of the $85,000 call with 9,492.8 BTC and the $70,000 put with 9,426.8 BTC. Calls at $90,000, $80,000, $100,000, and $82,000 also rank among major positions.</p>
<p>Thus, the distribution shapes a contained optimism. September’s bullish bets focus between $78,000 and $100,000, while bearish protections cluster more around $60,000 and below. Some traders assign an almost zero probability to a return above the October 2025 peak, exceeding $126,000. On CME, puts remain more numerous than calls, while options open interest has recovered from summer lows but remains below levels seen at the end of 2025.</p>
<p>The return of a positive volatility bias alone is not enough to announce a surge in <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/binance-avis-dhttps:/www.cointribune.com/cours-crypto/bitcoin-btc/etaille-sur-lexchange-crypto/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bitcoin price</a>. For Deribit’s September 25 expiration, representing about $15 billion in notional value, max pain is around $72,000, and for December 25 near $71,000. On Binance, this level hovers around $75,000 for September. After twelve months of caution, the options market has indeed changed bias. However, its positions show that players currently favor a measured bullish scenario rather than a swift return to BTC’s previous highs.</p>

Bitcoin : Options Signal A Measured Return Of Optimism

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