Momentum

Band

Ethereum

Ethereum<a href="https://yellow.com/asset/eth" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">(ETH)</a> exchange supply has fallen 38% from May 2023 to about 15.5 million ETH, while MVRV turned positive after nine months and price held <a href="https://yellow.com/news/ethereum-drops-2329-bearish-macd-sellers" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">above $2,438</a>.
<blockquote>
 <h2 id="key-points">Key Points:</h2>
 <ul>
 <li>Exchange supply stands near 15.5 million ETH, the lowest reading in years</li>
 <li>MVRV momentum turned positive in late August after about nine negative months</li>
 <li>ETH remains above $2,438.85 support as market volatility continues to compress</li>
 </ul>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="ethereum-exchange-supply">Ethereum Exchange Supply</h2>
Glassnode data <a href="https://beincrypto.com/ethereum-exchange-supply-mvrv-momentum/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">showed</a> roughly 15.5 million ETH on exchanges, the lowest balance in years and 38% below the May 2023 peak near 25.2 million. The decline has accelerated since June 2025.
Exchange balances were still close to 21.5 million ETH at that point, meaning about 6 million coins have since left trading platforms as available sell-side supply continued to shrink. Lower exchange balances can reduce immediately sellable float, but they do not determine price direction on their own during a broader market move. That distinction matters now.
ETH traded near $2,464 after a 0.87% daily decline, while remaining above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438.85, an area that previously capped rallies from mid-March through mid-May. The former resistance is now acting as support.
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<h2 id="eth-mvrv-momentum">ETH MVRV Momentum</h2>
Ethereum's MVRV ratio stood near 1.05, above its 160-day moving average of roughly 0.88 after crossing the trend line in the second half of August. The crossover ended a negative momentum phase that had lasted about nine months since November 2025, while the moving average itself has started curving higher.
The signal remains relatively new.
Technical conditions also point to a market nearing a larger move, with weekly volume declining since late August and Bollinger Band Width Percentile sitting near the bottom of its range. RSI was around 60 after cooling from roughly 80 in late August, leaving momentum positive but less stretched than it was during the previous surge.
A sustained hold above $2,438.85 could open a move toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $2,919.89, about 18% higher, while losing support would leave limited chart structure before roughly $1,980. Recent history argues against treating exchange withdrawals alone as bullish.
From September 2025 through June 2026, exchange balances kept falling even as ETH dropped from about $4,850 to roughly $1,550, showing why the new MVRV shift matters alongside supply. During that period, falling balances did not stop a roughly 68% price decline, underscoring why valuation momentum provides important context for the current setup. Supply contraction alone was not enough.
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Ethereum Faces Breakout Test After Exchange Supply Falls To 15.5M

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