Bitcoin

USDC

Solana

The World Cup already has a clear winner, and it isn’t a soccer team.Crypto has finally found a mass-market use case as fans flock to crypto-linked prediction markets to wager on the world’s most widely followed sporting event.On platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, users are trading contracts on which teams will advance, which countries will reach the final, and who will win the tournament. For many bettors, a World Cup wager is also a first encounter with crypto — and they may not even know it.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/e63846cc610b4edbbaa26efe5ce6c89e.png">Kalshi and Polymarket are among the World Cup’s biggest winners. Source: KalshiCrypto spent years trying to sell mainstream users on permissionless finance, <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/self-custody" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">self-custody</a>, and <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/tokenize" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">tokenization</a>, but prediction markets offer a simpler pitch. Users trade on what they know, while blockchain technology hums quietly in the background.“Prediction markets shifted that dynamic. Users show up because they have a view on something happening in the world,” Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-first-crypto-touchpoint-world-cup-bettors" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told </a>Cointelegraph.<h2 id="prediction-markets-world-cup-test">Prediction Markets' World Cup Test</h2><img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/8e8e002537ae493b94e6f1ff21bbdeb7.png">Bitget researchers say the World Cup has been a major crypto onboarding event. Source: <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/26/3318169/0/en/prediction-markets-become-crypto-s-onboarding-layer-as-60-of-users-are-new-to-onchain-trading-bitget-wallet-finds.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitget</a>Since the 2026 World Cup kicked off in June, trading volume on prediction platforms has skyrocketed.Fortune <a href="https://fortune.com/2026/06/22/world-cup-prediction-markets-5-4-billion-betting-records/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported</a> that World Cup <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/prediction-market" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">prediction markets</a> had generated $5.4 billion in cumulative trading volume by late June, with Kalshi accounting for $2.9 billion and Polymarket generating $2.5 billion. Polymarket’s broader soccer-related volume topped $5 billion.The figures are too big to have come solely from crypto-native traders. Bitget Wallet <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/26/3318169/0/en/prediction-markets-become-crypto-s-onboarding-layer-as-60-of-users-are-new-to-onchain-trading-bitget-wallet-finds.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> a 90-day study of 857,000 active Polymarket users found that 60% had no on-chain trading history prior to using prediction markets.Polymarket, a crypto-native platform, is the clearest example of the crypto onboarding trend. Kalshi is crypto-linked as well, and since 2024 the US-regulated prediction platform has rolled out several crypto-related <a href="https://zerohash.com/case-studies/kalshi" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">features</a>, from USDC (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">USDC</a>) and Bitcoin (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) deposits to tokenized markets on Solana.Bernstein analysts called the World Cup a “potential watershed moment” for prediction markets, <a href="https://decrypt.co/370786/world-cup-billions-volume-prediction-markets-watershed-moment-bernstein" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">according</a> to Decrypt.<h2 id="trading-app-bonanza">Trading App Bonanza</h2><img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/fe955e2e2ffb4444b64f99e28d3ec45f.jpg">Coinbase is wagering on prediction markets’ continued success. Source: CoinMarketCapCrypto trading platforms are also cashing in on the prediction market boom.Robinhood, which offers both stocks and crypto, <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/the-world-cup-is-now-trading-on-robinhood-and-rothera/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">launched</a> World Cup markets in June through Rothera, its new affiliate exchange. Coinbase <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-expands-prediction-markets-nationwide-181000680.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">partnered</a> with Kalshi in December 2025 to embed prediction markets directly into its trading app.The products are catching on. Robinhood said customers traded more than 12 billion event contracts in 2025 and more than 16 billion in 2026. Coinbase <a href="https://investor.coinbase.com/news/news-details/2026/Coinbase-Q1-Financial-Results-Show-Resilient-Financial-Performance-Driven-by-New-All-Time-High-Crypto-Trading-Volume-Market-Share/default.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> prediction markets reached $100 million in annualized revenue in March, less than two months after launch.“We heard from customers that they wanted to trade more than just crypto on Coinbase,” CEO Brian Armstrong <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/earnings/COIN-Q1-2026-earnings_call-556179.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> on Coinbase’s Q1 call.<h2 id="the-regulatory-fight-for-event-contracts">The Regulatory Fight for Event Contracts</h2><img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/3d4c02c6b9264012a159a8676f31d72c.jpg">More than a dozen states are challenging prediction markets in court. Source: CoinMarketCapPrediction markets’ breakneck growth has made them a legal target.In the US, the dispute now spans more than a dozen states, with state <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/regulated" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">regulators</a>, attorneys general, tribes, platforms, and the CFTC filing overlapping lawsuits over whether sports contracts constitute federally regulated derivatives or unlicensed gambling.“Kalshi’s event contracts for sports are just illegal gambling by another name, and they should play by the same rules as every other licensed gambling platform,” New York Attorney General Letitia James <a href="https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2026/attorney-general-james-joins-bipartisan-coalition-defending-states-gambling-laws" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a>.The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken the opposite view. The agency says event contracts traded on federally regulated exchanges fall under federal commodities law, not state gambling rules. It has sued nine states to block crackdowns on prediction markets.“Congress has entrusted the CFTC with the sole authority to regulate commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets,” Chairman Michael Selig <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/cftc-takes-legal-action-against-143900543.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a>.The fight isn’t settled. In April, Kalshi won a major victory when the 3rd US Circuit Court of Appeals said its sports contracts likely fall under CFTC jurisdiction. In June, Michigan won a temporary order blocking the company from offering sports markets in the state.“If we are gambling, then I think you’re basically calling the entire financial market gambling,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/kalshi-sports-betting-super-bowl" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told</a> Axios.<h2 id="evolving-safeguards">Evolving Safeguards</h2><img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/9ee5db28055f494896f71afad16dfc9b.jpg">Prediction platforms are investing heavily in safeguards. Source: CoinMarketCapPlatforms are adding safeguards as regulatory scrutiny grows.Kalshi and Polymarket have both announced measures aimed at restricting athletes, coaches, officials, and other insiders from trading on markets they could influence. They have added surveillance tools, outside monitoring partners, and stricter screening for higher-risk contracts.Platforms are especially keen to show they can police World Cup trading. Kalshi is <a href="https://www.geniussports.com/newsroom/kalshi-and-the-argentine-football-association-afa-announce-official-partnership-for-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">using</a> Genius Sports data to help create and settle contracts linked to the Argentine Football Association and to share integrity information. Polymarket has added monitoring partners, <a href="https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Polymarket-Partners-With-Palantir-and-TWG-AI-to-Build-Next-generation-Sports-Integrity-Platform/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">including</a> Chainalysis, Palantir and TWG AI, to flag potential insider trading or manipulation.On-chain markets can make that policing easier because trades settle on public ledgers, giving platforms and investigators a clearer trail of wallets, timing, and transaction flows.“Polymarket was built on-chain because transparency matters,” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260430726176/en/Polymarket-Selects-Chainalysis-to-Deploy-First-of-Its-Kind-On-Chain-Market-Integrity-Solution" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a>.<h2 id="it-s-still-early-for-prediction-markets">It’s Still Early for Prediction Markets</h2><img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/873b9234f12441b780b1ac7428e6baa9.jpg">Analysts expect prediction markets’ growth to continue. Source: CoinMarketCapThe World Cup has made prediction markets hard to ignore. The post-tournament test is whether those users keep trading when the spotlight moves back to club soccer, crypto prices, politics, economic data, and pop culture.Analysts are betting the market will outlast the tournament. Bernstein projects prediction sites will handle $240 billion of event contracts in 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030, while data from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket suggest users are returning more often and trading across more categories.“Sports is the entry point, not the endgame,” Bernstein analysts <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/397345/sports-is-the-entry-point-not-the-endgame-bernstein-projects-prediction-market-sector-to-reach-1-trillion-in-annual-volume-by-2030" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">wrote</a>.

World Cup Prediction Markets: Crypto's Killer App That Doesn't Feel Like Crypto

Table of Contents

Other articles published on Jul 10, 2026

The Definitive Guide to Donald Trump’s Crypto Ventures in 2026

Bitcoin Gains Strength Despite Split Fed, Strategy Sale, and Mixed ETF Flows

What Happens if Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Comes Back?

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!