Bitcoin

Ethereum

Solana

Crypto markets improved at the end of last week but generally remained deeply bearish. Persistent spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF outflows and liquidation risk asymmetry dampened investor confidence despite the consensus view that <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a> trades at a discount. The negative sentiment was clearly reflected by crypto majors’ Q2 close, with Bitcoin down 14%, Ether (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETH</a>) 26.6% and Solana (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SOL</a>) 9.4%.The Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index score also fell to 11/100, highlighting the ‘extreme fear’ dominating the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs’ <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-record-june-outflows-blackrock-ibit" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$4.51 billion in net withdrawals</a> across June marked the worst monthly performance since inception.Outside of crypto markets, lingering concerns over AI capital expenditures and microchip pricing versus supply projections kept volatility present in global equity markets. Investors’ conviction may remain muted ahead of the July 8 release of FOMC minutes from June. They are also watching Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s planned reveal of the members he’s selected for five task forces <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/warshs-fed-debut-brings-hawkish-tilt-bitcoin-dips" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reviewing Fed policy</a>.Warsh, who at this first meeting effectively threw out the concept of “forward guidance,” has had markets on pins and needles. They may react negatively if the FOMC minutes read as hawkish or inclined toward future rate hikes.The short-term outlook for markets is caution and concern as rising inflation, a potentially hawkish Fed and a wavering view on AI industry capex shape investors' expectations for Q3 2026.<h2 id="the-rundown">The Rundown</h2><ul><li>Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Largest Outflow Since Launch</li><li>Bitcoin lost $60K briefly, where does funding point?</li><li>Ethereum, The Quiet Mover</li><li>What’s On The Radar?</li></ul><h2 id="spot-bitcoin-etfs-see-largest-outflow-since-launch">Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Largest Outflow Since Launch</h2>June saw $4.5 billion in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the largest since they launched in January 2024. With Bitcoin down 32% year-to-date, ETF flows net negative and the pace of digital asset treasury BTC accumulation at a near standstill, retail and institutional investor conviction is largely absent.According to GSR’s <a href="https://x.com/fintechfrank/status/2070963241933767152?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Frank Chaparro</a>, “the average investor in BlackRock’s IBIT is now down roughly 40%, after sitting on a 30% gain as recently as mid-2025.”The dominant view is that investors have rotated capital out of crypto and into tech stocks, microchip manufacturers and companies with AI-industry exposure.Citing data from economist Torsten Slok, Crucible founder Meltem Demirors <a href="https://x.com/Melt_Dem/status/2069099390862606574?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a>:<blockquote> “AI stocks are now 47%, or nearly half of, SPY. ~100 tech firms and a handful of energy tickers generated $6.2 trillion in value this year, the other ~400 companies erased a trillion dollars in market cap. *Everything is computer*”
</blockquote><img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/eb8a1933f1c34427be8363c6c93b76a0.jpg">AI and energy sector market cap growth. Source: Meltem Demirors, XWhile the bulk of the crypto market languishes, Wall Street’s <a href="https://x.com/fintechfrank/status/2070872708666007983?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">push toward tokenized assets</a> continues to attract capital.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/80b6701b786144618eb594a93a0d52c8.png">RWA tokenization exceeds $32 billion. Source: <a href="https://x.com/fintechfrank/status/2070872708666007983?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Frank Chaparro, X</a>To date, the distributed asset value of the <a href="https://app.rwa.xyz/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">real world assets market</a> sits at $30.36 billion, while the represented asset value (RWA tokens using the blockchain as a recordkeeping layer) is $428.78 billion.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/fc0fac1dc1484ca4a66731866971831a.png">Total RWA Value. Source: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">app.rwa.xyz</a>It may not be accurate to assume capital outflows from altcoins, memecoins and Bitcoin are going directly into <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/view/real-world-assets-protocols/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">tokenized real world assets</a>. It is illustrative of the expanding optionality available to investors interested in sourcing yield from assets with better fundamentals and a lower risk premium.<h2 id="bitcoin-briefly-lost-60k-where-does-funding-point">Bitcoin Briefly Lost $60K: Where Does Funding Point?</h2>On July 1, Bitcoin <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-drops-to-dollar58k-as-us-inflation-data-rattles-markets" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">fell to a 21-month low</a> of $57,800, marking a 33% year-to-date loss but the drawdown was countered by bidders, leading to a series of bounces above $60,000.By midweek, Bitcoin’s aggregate futures market open interest rose as much as 4% to top $20.86 billion. Rising prices, plus open interest over a multi-day period, hint at a developing trend change. However, BTC’s hot funding rates at 0.228 point to a one-sided market where longs have crowded into positions and are paying a steep premium to stay leveraged.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/f0389dcd70f24e5c9263bd40a912cf03.png">Bitcoin price, open interest and funding rate. Source: HyblockAs of July 2, BTC’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot and futures showed $681 million in net buying for the week. Even with buyers stepping in, Bitcoin’s aggregate open interest is still down 45% from its $36.9 billion pre-October 2025 crash high.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/ce8caa2edb994894914f651d891924d7.png">Bitcoin spot and futures aggregate cumulative volume delta, 1-week view. Source: HyblockAccording to GSR asset manager Andy Baehr, the <a href="https://x.com/GSR_io/status/2069394987243151593?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">October 10, 2025 market correction</a> was a:<blockquote> “Very large deleveraging event, nearly $20 billion of liquidations on crypto native perpetual contracts scared away, it was a forest fire, that scared away a lot of leverage in the system and that leverage is very very slow to come back. Markets haven’t rallied to support or draw that back in.”
</blockquote>In light of the early month recovery, Bitcoin’s seasonality data from 2013 to 2025 shows an average 7.51% return in July, which marks the start of Q3.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/768bc3e5b07f4292b743576d33dc657d.png">Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlassBased on the current data and market performance, retail traders are fearful, but have stopped selling ETFs, while leveraged institutional players are crowding the long side.The general mood leans toward cautious long positioning. This is a fragile situation where a single macroeconomic or geopolitical event could tip the scale and trigger a violent response in crypto markets.<h2 id="ethereum-the-quiet-mover">Ethereum, The Quiet Mover</h2>Ether is the overlooked quiet star of the week. Ether’s spot and futures cumulative volume delta for the past 7-days show aggressive accumulation, consistent with institutional buying into weakness. The buying was almost entirely futures driven with a +$1.64 billion net futures delta versus roughly $40 million spot.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/182b516f4a8e4a0c8db03cea519974f5.png">Ether spot and futures aggregate cumulative volume delta, 7-day view. Source: HyblockEther’s open interest also surged across the week, rising nearly 15% from $9.53 billion to over $11 billion by July 3, another sign of leverage entering the market. Similar to Bitcoin, ETH’s high funding rate and traders’ long bias in perpetual futures highlight a tricky situation. Holding may become dependent upon consistent futures and spot buy side flows — or upon the price staying above $1,700 if open interest and funding pull back to their median range.<h2 id="what-s-on-the-radar">What’s On The Radar?</h2><ul><li>Markets remain caught between institutional accumulation and slowing retail capitulation. Will retail traders re-enter crypto markets or will the leverage driven rally fizzle and crypto majors follow?</li><li>Ether was the quiet mover last week. Is this the start of a narrative rotation away from Bitcoin’s macro-driven risk?</li><li>June FOMC comments and future statements from Fed Chair Warsh may impact the budding narrative that the Fed’s current view is hawkish.</li><li>Extended weakness in AI-related equities could continue to spill over into crypto markets.</li><li>On July 2 - 3, Spot Bitcoin ETF <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-221m-inflows-end-outflow-streak" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">flows turned positive</a> with a $220 million inflow, a break from 10 consecutive days of outflows. Will the buying trend continue through this week?</li></ul>

Bitcoin, Ethereum and SOL Bounce From Yearly Lows as Traders Eye Bullish July

Table of Contents

Other articles published on Jul 5, 2026

Mega IPOs Test Bitcoin’s Liquidity as AI Stocks Steal the Spotlight

What Is a Stablecoin? The Answer Has Become Surprisingly Complex

Bitcoin, Ethereum Price Hit New 2026 Lows as Big Tech, AI Sell-Off

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!