Monad (MON) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks and Inflation (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
50.6% of MON’s 100B supply remains locked until Q4 2029. Team (27%) and investor (19.7%) tokens start unlocking in late 2026, with monthly vesting. Combined with 2% annual inflation from block rewards, this risks oversupply if demand doesn’t match.

What this means:
Even minor sell-offs from early stakeholders could amplify downside pressure. For example, a 10% sell-off of the 19.7B investor tokens would add ~1.97B MON ($36.8M at $0.0187) to circulation, equivalent to 18% of current supply.

2. Ecosystem Growth (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Monad’s recent USD1 stablecoin integration and partnerships (e.g., Bybit staking) aim to boost DeFi activity. However, Total Value Locked (TVL) remains untested post-mainnet.

What this means:
Successful adoption could lift MON’s utility as a gas token, but competition from Ethereum L2s (e.g., Base) and Solana’s established DeFi ecosystem limits upside. Current RSI (35.49) and Fear & Greed Index (28) suggest weak speculative interest.

3. Regulatory Tailwinds (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Monad’s MiCA-compliant structure avoids direct classification as a security in the EU. This contrasts with U.S.-facing projects facing SEC scrutiny (MiCA Whitepaper).

What this means:
Regulatory safety could attract institutional capital, especially if Monad becomes a hub for EU-centric stablecoins like USD1. However, global regulatory fragmentation remains a risk.

Conclusion

Monad’s price hinges on balancing supply inflation with real-world adoption. Watch Q3 2026 unlocks and TVL trends post-USD1 integration. Can MON’s EVM-compatible tech carve a niche against entrenched rivals, or will dilution drown momentum?