Deep Dive
1. Monad Momentum Wave 1 Results (October 2025)
Overview: The Monad Foundation launched Monad Momentum, an incentives matching program, on 18 September 2025 (Monad Foundation). Applications for Wave 1 closed on 28 September 2025, with teams to be notified of their selection by 10 October 2025. This program aims to fund teams with functional products on Monad Testnet that are ready for Mainnet deployment, focusing on metrics like user retention and revenue generation.
What this means: This is bullish for MON because it directly funds and accelerates the launch of practical applications on the network, which is critical for avoiding a "ghost chain" scenario post-mainnet. Successful projects will drive initial user activity and Total Value Locked (TVL), creating fundamental utility for the MON token.
2. Major Token Unlocks Begin (Late 2026)
Overview: According to multiple analyses, over 50% of the total 100 billion MON token supply is locked for the team, investors, and treasury (Bitrue). The schedule indicates that major unlocks commence in late 2026 and continue through 2029. This includes tokens from the $105 million airdrop, 50% of which were vested until 2026 (CCN).
What this means: This is a neutral-to-bearish factor for MON's price in the medium term, as it introduces gradual selling pressure from early backers. The key risk is dilution if new demand from ecosystem growth does not outpace the increasing circulating supply. Monitoring the unlock schedule and on-chain holder behavior will be crucial.
3. Ecosystem Expansion & dApp Growth (2026–2027)
Overview: With the mainnet live, Monad's roadmap shifts from launch to scaling. The long-term vision involves expanding its DeFi, NFT, and gaming ecosystems, which already featured over 300 projects during the testnet phase (Backpack). Success hinges on attracting developers and users through EVM compatibility and low fees.
What this means: This is bullish for MON if execution is successful, as sustained on-chain activity increases demand for MON for gas fees and staking. Key metrics to watch include daily active addresses, TVL, and the integration of major protocols like Aave. However, the bearish risk is intense competition from other Layer-1s and Layer-2s, which could limit adoption.
Conclusion
Monad's immediate post-mainnet trajectory hinges on converting its technical promise into tangible ecosystem growth through the Momentum program, while navigating the future challenge of token supply unlocks. Will developer incentives and EVM compatibility be enough to foster sustainable adoption against fierce competition?