Latest Fluid (FLUID) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Kamino-Jupiter Lend Dispute (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Kamino, Solana’s second-largest lending protocol, manually blocked an address linked to Jupiter Lend’s refinancing tool on Dec 2, preventing users from migrating loans. Fluid provides liquidity to Jupiter Lend, which has seen its TVL surge to $500M.

What this means: The move was seen as anti-competitive, with critics accusing Kamino of trapping users in low-yield positions. Fluid’s association with Jupiter Lend—a direct competitor to Kamino—may have driven short-term uncertainty, especially as Kamino’s TVL fell 30% since October.

What to watch: Whether Kamino reverses the block or Fluid/Jupiter Lend gain market share in Solana’s $3.7B lending sector.

2. Post-Listing Selling Pressure (Mixed Impact)

Overview: FLUID’s Coinbase listing on Nov 25 provided initial relief in a bearish market, but gains faded as macro conditions worsened.

What this means: While listings enhance accessibility, FLUID’s 30-day price decline (-3.5%) and 47% drop from its 2025 high suggest holders are taking profits. With 77.2M FLUID (77% of supply) circulating, token unlocks or institutional exits (e.g., StableX’s $100M treasury shift) could add pressure.

3. Technical Weakness (Neutral/Bearish)

Overview: FLUID trades below its 30-day SMA ($3.45) and 200-day SMA ($4.95), with RSI at 52.77 (neutral). Volume crashed 78% to $11.45M, reducing liquidity.

What this means: Low volume amplifies price swings. The pivot point at $3.45 is critical resistance; a sustained break below could target the $3.07 Fibonacci level. MACD shows tentative bullish momentum, but traders await clearer signals.

Conclusion

FLUID’s drop reflects sector-specific risks (Kamino’s anti-competitive move), post-listing exhaustion, and thin liquidity. While its DeFi fundamentals remain strong ($1.4B TVL, multi-chain integration), sentiment hinges on resolving the Solana lending feud and reclaiming $3.45.

Key watch: Can FLUID hold $3.07 (Fibonacci 78.6%) amid declining volume, or will the Kamino dispute trigger deeper DeFi contagion?

Deep Dive

1. Solana DeFi Controversy Spurs Attention (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
On December 2, Kamino, Solana’s second-largest DeFi protocol, blocked users from refinancing loans via Jupiter Lend’s new tool, triggering accusations of anti-competitive behavior (The Defiant). Fluid, which powers liquidity for Jupiter Lend, saw its TVL-linked narrative gain traction as Jupiter Lend’s TVL surpassed $500M (+66% since August).

What this means:
The conflict highlights Fluid’s role in enabling cross-protocol liquidity. Traders may interpret Kamino’s defensive move as validation of Fluid/Jupiter’s growing influence, driving speculative buying. However, Kamino’s 30% TVL drop since October signals risks if Solana’s lending sector contracts.

What to look out for:
Further TVL shifts between Kamino and Jupiter Lend – a sustained $500M+ for Jupiter could reinforce bullish sentiment.

2. Technical Breakout Confirmed (Bullish Signal)

Overview:
FLUID broke above its 7-day SMA ($3.11) and pivot point ($2.96), with the MACD histogram turning positive (+0.011). The 24h volume surged 961% to $52.6M, confirming buyer conviction.

What this means:
The move above $3.59 (50% Fibonacci retracement) suggests a shift from bearish to neutral momentum. However, RSI at 38.44 remains in oversold territory, leaving room for continued upside if buying pressure holds.

Key threshold:
A close above $3.81 (38.2% Fib) could target $4.07, while failure to hold $3.45 (30-day SMA) may trigger profit-taking.

Conclusion

FLUID’s rally reflects a mix of sector-specific catalysts (Solana DeFi rivalry) and technical momentum, though its 90-day decline of 42.7% underscores lingering macro risks. Key watch: Can Jupiter Lend sustain its TVL growth post-controversy, or will broader Solana liquidity outflows cap gains?