Kamino Finance (KMNO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Season 5 Borrow Incentives & Vesting (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Season 5 (launched Nov 7, 2025) allocates 100M KMNO (~3.1% of circulating supply) over three months, focusing on borrowing. Borrowers of USDC against SOL collateral earn 4M KMNO weekly. Rewards vest over six months, with penalties for early claims.

What this means:
- Bullish: Borrow demand could rise, increasing protocol revenue and KMNO utility.
- Bearish: Post-vesting unlocks (starting Nov 12) risk dilution—90M KMNO from Season 4 enter circulation through May 2026.

2. Real-World Asset Adoption (Bullish)

Overview:
Kamino’s xStocks Market allows tokenized equities (AAPLx, NVDAx) as collateral, excluding U.S. users. Partnerships with Huma Finance brought $5.7B payment token PST to Kamino Lend V2, while Solstice Market offers fixed-yield PT-eUSX.

What this means:
- Institutional inflows via RWAs could boost TVL (currently $4B) and KMNO’s fee revenue.
- Kamino dominates Solana’s RWA lending, holding 41.9% of the chain’s $418M RWA market (CoinMarketCap).

3. Whale Activity & Exchange Listings (Bullish)

Overview:
Whales accumulated 29.39M KMNO (+35.9%) in Sept 2025. KMNO listed on Gemini (Oct 16) and Coinbase (Oct 2), with perpetual futures driving 35% monthly gains.

What this means:
- Exchange inflows improve liquidity and price discovery.
- Whale holdings (now ~0.9% of supply) suggest confidence in Kamino’s $10B TVL roadmap.

Conclusion

KMNO’s mid-term outlook hinges on balancing reward-driven user growth with controlled token unlocks. The protocol’s pivot to RWAs and institutional credit could offset retail-driven volatility. Watch whether Season 5 borrow incentives sustain the 800% TVL growth seen in Season 4—failure here might reactivate bearish technicals below $0.061.

What’s the next key threshold? Can KMNO reclaim its 200-day EMA at $0.0693, last tested during the Coinbase listing rally?