Graphite Protocol (GP) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Revenue Volatility & Buyback Strategy (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Graphite Protocol uses 7.6% of @bonk_fun platform fees to buy back and burn GP tokens, with $16.8M in reserves for continued buybacks as of August 2025. However, revenue depends on meme coin trading activity, which dropped 50% in August 2025 amid competition from Pump.fun.

What this means:
Strong buybacks could offset selling pressure, but declining platform usage (e.g., 48.6% GP price drop in August) risks reducing fee income. Watch quarterly burn rates and @bonk_fun’s market share vs. rivals like Pump.fun.

2. Competitive Pressures in Solana Ecosystem (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Pump.fun overtook Graphite’s @bonk_fun in daily volume ($144.5M vs. $34.6M) and user activity (94K vs. 78K addresses) by August 2025. Graphite’s delayed whitepaper and website updates in July-August 2025 eroded trader confidence.

What this means:
Loss of market share directly threatens Graphite’s revenue model. A sustained decline could trigger sell-offs, especially with GP’s 70% drop from its July 2025 peak. Monitor @bonk_fun’s weekly volume and developer updates.

3. Token Supply Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Private investors hold 5% of GP supply (18-month vesting), while the team proposed relocking 10% of tokens in August 2025 – pending community approval. Circulating supply stands at 33.8M (57% of total).

What this means:
Vesting unlocks in late 2025 could increase sell pressure, but successful relocking would signal long-term alignment. GP’s 81% drop from all-time highs suggests weak demand to absorb new supply. Track vesting schedules and governance votes.

Conclusion

GP’s path hinges on @bonk_fun’s ability to regain market share against Pump.fun, sustained buybacks amid volatile revenues, and managing vesting unlocks. The token’s 90-day RSI (46.41) and position below the 30-day SMA ($0.32) reflect bearish sentiment, but a break above $0.34 Fibonacci resistance could signal momentum shifts.

Key question: Can Graphite’s hiring push for marketing/business development reverse @bonk_fun’s declining activity before Q1 2026 vesting events?