Latest Graphite Protocol (GP) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Strategic Buybacks (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
On 16 January 2026, Graphite resumed buybacks, deploying capital to acquire GP tokens trading “below intrinsic value.” The treasury holds $16.8M in cash reserves to fund these purchases.

What this means:
Buybacks reduce circulating supply (34.57M of 59.34M total) while signaling management’s belief in undervaluation. This creates upward pressure: GP’s 24h volume surged 39.86% to $1.09M alongside the price rise.

What to look out for:
Sustained buyback volume vs. profit-taking from holders who bought during the 30-day +122.8% rally.

2. Technical Breakout (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
GP reclaimed its 30-day SMA ($0.4999) and 7-day EMA ($0.5868). The RSI-14 rebounded to 55.64 (neutral), while MACD shows bearish divergence (-0.01258 histogram).

What this means:
Short-term traders likely interpreted the SMA hold as a bullish entry signal. However, the MACD-Signal Line crossover suggests weakening momentum above $0.65. Key resistance lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci level ($0.7606).

3. Trust Rebuilding (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Graphite launched a transparency portal in August 2025, disclosing wallets, vesting schedules, and revenue data. This addressed prior FUD around tokenomics.

What this means:
The 24h rally reflects reduced perceived risk after months of volatility. Revenue grew from $5M/year to $50M+ annually, driven by @bonk_fun’s meme coin platform dominance.

Conclusion

GP’s rise combines tactical buybacks, technical trading, and hard metrics showing real revenue growth. However, the token remains 41.9% below its August 2025 high of $1.60, highlighting residual risk in lower-cap projects.

Key watch: Can GP hold above the 30-day SMA ($0.4999) if Bitcoin dominance (+59.09%) triggers an altcoin sell-off?

Deep Dive

1. Profit-Taking After Rally (Bearish Impact)

Overview: GP surged 69.12% over 30 days, creating overbought conditions. The RSI14 at 62.13 (approaching overbought 70 threshold) signaled vulnerability to correction.
What this means: Short-term traders likely secured profits, amplifying selling pressure. This aligns with historical patterns where assets with >50% monthly gains often face pullbacks. Volume rose 1.06% to $1.01M, confirming active profit-booking.

2. Technical Rejection at Resistance (Bearish Impact)

Overview: GP faced rejection near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.659 – a key resistance zone. The price currently trades at $0.594, below the daily pivot point of $0.598.
What this means: Failure to hold $0.598 suggests weak near-term momentum. The MACD histogram remains positive (+0.019), but slowing bullish momentum may signal consolidation. Watch the 50% Fibonacci support at $0.582 – a break could trigger further downside.

3. Altcoin Market Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.52% (+0.20% in 24h), while the Altcoin Season Index fell 14.29% to 42. Total crypto spot volume dropped 19.1%.
What this means: Capital rotated from altcoins like GP to Bitcoin amid neutral market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index: 41). This mirrors GP’s underperformance versus BTC during risk-off shifts.

Conclusion

GP’s dip reflects natural profit-taking after strong gains, technical resistance struggles, and broader altcoin weakness. While mid-term fundamentals remain intact, monitor the $0.582 Fibonacci support and BTC dominance trends for directional cues.
Key watch: Can GP hold $0.582 support, and will altcoin liquidity improve if Bitcoin dominance stabilizes?