EigenCloud (EIGEN) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Overhang (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
A $12.3M EIGEN unlock (6.75% of market cap) is scheduled for February 1, 2026. Similar unlocks in 2025 saw price drops of 15–30% post-event due to profit-taking. With EIGEN down 87% YoY, weak holders may exit.

What this means:
Historically, unlocks representing >5% of market cap (Tokenomist) trigger volatility. However, EigenCloud’s status as the third-largest DeFi protocol by TVL ($13B+) could buffer sell pressure if demand absorbs new supply.

2. Technical Extremes Signal Rebound Potential (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
EIGEN’s 7-day RSI (16.15) is the lowest since April 2025, when it rallied 144% from ATL. MACD histogram (-0.007) shows bearish momentum but divergence from price.

What this means:
Oversold conditions suggest a bounce could materialize, especially if the broader market stabilizes. However, resistance at $0.35 (38.2% Fib) and death cross (50-day < 200-day MA) limit upside.

3. Verifiable Compute Adoption (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
EigenCloud’s “trust triad” (TEEs, crypto proofs, restaking) solves critical gaps in AI/DeFi. Partnerships with Google (AP2 protocol) and Reya Network (institutional trading) validate use cases.

What this means:
If EigenCloud captures even 5% of the $1.8T cloud market (Four Pillars), EIGEN’s utility-driven demand could offset dilution. ELIP-12’s fee-redirection mechanism (20% to EIGEN buybacks) adds deflationary pressure.

Conclusion

EigenCloud’s price hinges on whether protocol adoption outpaces unlock-driven selling. The Feb 1 unlock is a near-term test, while AI/DeFi integrations (Q2 2026 roadmap) could reignite momentum.

Key question: Will EigenCloud’s TVL growth (currently $13B) accelerate post-unlock, signaling long-term holder conviction?