Balancer (BAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Security Risks and Exchange Delistings (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Balancer’s November 2025 exploit drained $128M from v2 pools across nine chains, causing TVL to plummet from $442M to $182M in 24 hours. Bithumb will delist BAL in January 2026, citing insufficient project communication and security concerns.

What this means:
The delisting reduces liquidity and retail access, while lingering security fears could deter institutional inflows. BAL’s 81% annual decline reflects eroded confidence, though an $8M reimbursement proposal (Balancer) might mitigate long-term reputational damage.

2. v3 Migration and HyperEVM Expansion (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Balancer deprecated all v2 pool factories (BIP-887) in November 2025, pushing LPs to v3’s gas-efficient architecture. A separate proposal aims to deploy v3 on HyperEVM, targeting early dominance in a high-potential EVM ecosystem.

What this means:
Successful migration could reverse TVL outflows (current: $182M) and attract partners like Rocket Pool. However, v3’s traction on HyperEVM remains unproven – failure to hit $15M TVL within six months would halt BAL integration (BIP-862).

3. Macro Factors: Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview:
Ethereum’s December 2025 Fusaka upgrade cut L2 fees by 40-60%, with average gas prices dropping to 0.1-0.3 Gwei. This aligns with Balancer’s gas-sensitive user base.

What this means:
Cheaper transactions could revive trading volume on Balancer, especially for small LPs. Post-upgrade, ETH’s TPS surged 16x to 238.1, improving DEX competitiveness versus CEXs like Binance.

Conclusion

Balancer’s price hinges on executing its v3 roadmap while containing fallout from the exploit. Watch the v3 TVL growth rate on Ethereum and HyperEVM – sustained $5M+/month inflows would signal recovery, while sub-$100k daily volumes could prolong the downtrend. Can Balancer leverage Ethereum’s scalability gains to outpace rivals like Camelot and Vertex?