Latest Axie Infinity (AXS) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Reduced Sell Pressure From Token Unlocks (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
A Nov. 7 token unlock released $854,780 worth of AXS – significantly smaller than other projects like MOVE ($2.9M). Historically, large unlocks correlate with price drops due to supply dilution.

What this means:
The relatively minor unlock likely eased fears of immediate selling pressure, allowing AXS to decouple from broader market declines. However, AXS remains 74% below its 2024 peak, reflecting persistent long-term skepticism about tokenomics.

What to look out for:
Next major unlock dates and whether staking rates (10-12% APY on Bitpanda) offset inflation.

2. Web3 Gaming Narrative Revival (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
MetaSpace’s Dubai Challenge (Nov. 11) offering real-world travel rewards reignited interest in blockchain gaming’s “real utility” phase, with AXS cited alongside Illuvium and The Sandbox as leaders.

What this means:
Axie Infinity’s $4B+ historical NFT trading volume positions it as a proxy for renewed GameFi interest. The 24h price rise coincided with a 12.7% monthly increase in crypto derivatives volume, signaling risk appetite returning to altcoins.

3. Technical Rebound From Oversold Levels (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
AXS’s RSI14 hit 36.52 on Nov. 14 – near the 30-40 “oversold” zone that often precedes bounces. The MACD histogram turned positive for the first time since October, suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

What this means:
Traders may interpret this as a short-term buying signal, though the price remains below critical resistance at the 7-day SMA ($1.37). Fibonacci retracement levels show next key resistance at $1.34 (61.8% of recent swing high/low).

Conclusion

AXS’s 24h gain reflects a temporary alignment of manageable tokenomics, sector-specific catalysts, and technical triggers – but sustainability depends on whether Web3 gaming engagement translates to AXS burns or staking growth. Key watch: Can AXS hold above $1.24 (78.6% Fib level) to confirm a trend reversal?

Deep Dive

1. Binance Derivatives Delisting (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Binance halted AXS/USD perpetual contracts on Nov 7, closing positions and settling trades. This followed similar delistings of KDA and THETA contracts, which historically trigger short-term selloffs due to reduced liquidity and trader exit.

What this means:
- Reduced derivatives access lowers speculative demand.
- Past delistings (e.g., Kadena’s 22% drop post-announcement) set a precedent for negative price impact.
- AXS’s 24h volume rose 8% to $31.1M, suggesting panic selling rather than accumulation.

What to watch: If spot markets absorb the sell pressure or if derivatives reopen on other exchanges.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)

Overview: AXS broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.26), aligning with its current price. Key indicators:
- RSI (14): 37.9 (neutral but trending toward oversold).
- MACD: Bullish crossover (histogram +0.015) but still negative territory.
- Support: Next critical level at $1.12 (2025 swing low).

What this means:
- Price trades below 7-day SMA ($1.41) and 30-day SMA ($1.47), signaling bearish dominance.
- Bulls need a close above $1.45 (50% Fib level) to reverse the trend.

3. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Crypto fear/greed index hit 22 (“Extreme Fear”) on Nov 14, with Bitcoin dominance rising to 59.13% as capital flees altcoins.

What this means:
- AXS’s 30-day correlation with BTC is 0.86 – high beta alts drop harder in downturns.
- Web3 gaming sector faces headwinds: Top tokens (MANA, SAND) also fell 4-7% in 24h.

Conclusion

AXS’s drop reflects Binance’s contract sunset, weak technical structure, and crypto’s risk-off shift. While the MACD hints at a potential rebound, sustained recovery requires reclaiming $1.45 and improved sector sentiment.

Key watch: Can AXS hold $1.12 support, or will breaking it trigger a retest of $1.00? Monitor Binance’s AXS spot volumes for signs of accumulation.