Latest Axelar (AXL) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Activity Surge (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Axelar’s cross-chain transfers grew 536% YoY, with over $19.5B locked in bridges as of Dec 2025. The Hedera integration (24 Nov) connected 60+ chains, driving demand for AXL as the gas token.
What this means: Increased network usage directly boosts AXL’s transaction fee burn mechanics and validator rewards. Axelar’s role in XRP Ledger’s EVM sidechain and enterprise adoption (e.g., USDC’s multichain expansion) adds fundamental support.
What to watch: Axelar’s Q4 2025 network revenue report (expected 15 Dec) for fee burn and staking metrics.

2. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: AXL’s price found support at $0.1143 (pivot point), with MACD flipping bullish and RSI at 36.51 (near oversold). However, it remains below the 30-day SMA ($0.137).
What this means: The bounce reflects short-term trader interest, but sustained recovery needs a break above $0.137. Volume remains 37% below the 24h average, indicating cautious participation.

Conclusion

Axelar’s uptick reflects a blend of strategic cross-chain expansions and oversold technicals, though broader market fear (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 22) caps gains. Key watch: Can AXL hold above $0.115 and attract volume to challenge the 30-day SMA? Monitor Axelar’s cross-chain TVL and AgentFlux adoption post-launch (4 Dec) for directional cues.

Deep Dive

1. Risk-Off Crypto Climate (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The total crypto market fell 3.21% ($3.04T→$2.94T), with altcoins underperforming Bitcoin (+58.64% dominance). Fear-driven rotations to "safe" assets hurt interoperability tokens like AXL.

What this means: Axelar’s 0.004% market dominance makes it vulnerable to liquidity shifts. The CMC Altcoin Season Index (21/100) confirms capital remains concentrated in BTC, leaving cross-chain tokens like AXL under pressure.

What to look out for: BTC price action – A break below $110K could trigger deeper altcoin selloffs.

2. Technical Downtrend Accelerates (Bearish Impact)

Overview: AXL trades below all key EMAs (7-day: $0.118, 30-day: $0.138) and Fibonacci support ($0.123). MACD histogram (+0.00087) shows weakening momentum despite oversold RSI (34.09).

What this means: Technical traders see limited upside until AXL reclaims $0.117 (7-day SMA). The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.123 now acts as resistance – a critical level for trend reversal signals.

3. AgentFlux Launch Fails to Offset Macro Pressures (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Axelar’s 4 December launch of AgentFlux – an AI framework for local agent execution – saw muted market reaction despite addressing institutional privacy needs.

What this means: While strategically important for enterprise adoption, the news lacked immediate fee/revenue catalysts. With crypto’s Fear Index at 21, investors prioritized short-term risk management over long-term AI narratives.

Conclusion

Axelar’s decline reflects crypto-wide risk aversion amplified by its weak technical structure. While AgentFlux strengthens Axelar’s institutional value proposition, traders await concrete adoption metrics.

Key watch: Can AXL hold the $0.105–$0.113 pivot zone, or will Bitcoin’s dominance push it toward yearly lows near $0.10?