Deep Dive
1. Post-Unlock Selling Pressure (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
On December 1, EIGEN unlocked 36.82M tokens (10.8% of supply, $21.8M at current prices). These tokens were flagged as “high insider emissions” (CoinMarketCap), raising concerns about rapid selling.
What this means:
Unlocks expand circulating supply, creating downward pressure if demand doesn’t match. With EIGEN already down 41.5% over 30 days, holders may be exiting to cut losses. The 42.3% surge in 24h trading volume aligns with accelerated selling activity.
What to look out for:
Monitoring exchange inflows and wallet activity to gauge if insiders continue offloading tokens.
2. Technical Downtrend Confirmation (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
EIGEN trades at $0.482, below its 7-day SMA ($0.5203) and 30-day SMA ($0.6098). The RSI-14 at 37.7 signals bearish momentum but not yet oversold.
What this means:
The break below $0.50 (psychological support) and Fibonacci 23.6% retracement ($0.806) suggests weak buyer conviction. MACD’s slight positive histogram (+0.0063) offers little reassurance amid falling EMAs.
Key threshold:
A close above $0.52 (7-day SMA) could signal short-term relief, while a drop below $0.466 (recent swing low) may trigger panic selling.
3. Altcoin Weakness in Bitcoin-Dominant Market (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 58.41%, reflecting capital rotation away from alts. The CMC Altcoin Season Index remains in “Bitcoin Season” territory (score: 17/100).
What this means:
EIGEN’s decline aligns with sector-wide risk aversion. With crypto fear/greed at 30 (“Fear”), traders favor liquidity over speculative altcoins. EIGEN’s 0.28 turnover ratio (volume/market cap) highlights thin liquidity, amplifying volatility.
Conclusion
EIGEN’s drop reflects a trifecta of supply shocks, technical breakdowns, and unfavorable macro conditions. While the project’s long-term vision (e.g., institutional DeFi partnerships) remains intact, short-term risks dominate.
Key watch: Can EIGEN stabilize above $0.45, or will Bitcoin’s dominance and unlock-related selling push it to new lows?