Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin fell as low as $67,653 overnight, its lowest since Aug. 19, and traded below its 200-week moving average for the first time since August, CoinMarketCap data show.</li>
 <li>US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $1.72 billion over six straight sessions through Thursday, and the Coinbase premium has been negative since September, Glassnode said.</li>
 <li>Bitfinex says a weekly close above roughly $68,000 on Sunday keeps Bitcoin's long-term trend bullish by the 200-week measure.</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) fell to its 200-week moving <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/moving-average-ma">average</a> early Friday, after US spot Bitcoin funds posted outflows for a sixth straight session. A weekly close on Sunday above about $68,000 would keep the long-term trend intact by Bitfinex's measure.
The selling met little demand from US buyers. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/leverage">Leveraged</a> bullish traders were forced out on the way down, and analysts disagree on whether the line holds.
Checkonchain's James Check described the sellers on Friday.
"Yesterday, over $680M worth of realised loss was locked in by investors who are selling in a panic," he <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/is-bitcoin-cheap-again">wrote</a>.
<h2 id="header-1">How Far Has Bitcoin Fallen? To Its 200-Week Average</h2>
Bitcoin traded at $68,488 at 10:28 a.m. ET on Friday, CoinMarketCap data show. It broke below $70,000 late Thursday in New York and hit its low a few hours later, before recovering part of the drop.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/f726be62dc964de793bb0a1a8ca59a4f.png">
Bitcoin's price over the past month, including Friday's drop to its 200-week average. Source: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">CoinMarketCap</a>
The long-term average smooths out weekly closes over roughly a full market cycle, and traders treat it as the dividing line for the long-term trend.
The line gave way briefly this summer. Bitcoin closed a week below it three times between late June and mid-August, and won it back within two weeks each time, by the desk's count of CoinMarketCap data. The desk <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-falls-below-200-day-average">reported</a> the break of the shorter 200-day average on Thursday.
<h2 id="header-2">Who Is Selling? ETF Holders and Leveraged Longs</h2>
Fund investors are still pulling money. US spot Bitcoin <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/exchange-traded-fund-etf">ETFs</a> lost $284 million on Thursday, extending the run of outflows to six sessions, Farside Investors data show.
Forced selling did the rest. About $1.06 billion in <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/long">long</a> positions were liquidated across crypto markets over the past day, most of it overnight, CoinGlass data show.
A liquidation closes a leveraged bet automatically once the trader's collateral runs out, which adds another sale to a falling market.
Higher <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/interest-rates">rates</a> add to the pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1% since Tuesday's inflation data, Yahoo Finance data show.
<h2 id="header-3">Where Are US Buyers? Quiet Since September, Glassnode Says</h2>
The demand gap shows up in the Coinbase premium, the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges. Heavy US buying pushes it positive.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/glassnode/status/2120986833181880597"></tweet-embed>
Glassnode found the premium negative throughout the slide from the September high. The big rallies of recent years all ran with a premium, and some started from discounts as deep as this one, the firm noted.
Smaller buyers have also pulled back. Retail demand is shrinking by nearly 10% a month, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote on X, though he reads that retreat as a contrarian buying signal.
<h2 id="header-4">What Decides the Trend? Sunday's Weekly Close Near $68,000</h2>
Bitfinex analysts set the test for the weekend.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/bitfinex/status/2121168389947138519"></tweet-embed>
A rebound would meet sellers higher up. Recent buyers paid about $75,400 on average, and many could sell into bounces, Bitfinex analysts wrote.
A weekly close below about $68,000 would be the fourth since June.
K33's head of research reads the drop as an entry point rather than a reason to sell.
"This is a great place to buy BTC… Do not press the red panic button," Vetle Lunde <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/VetleLunde/status/2121176411017015638">wrote</a>.
Further Reading: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-falls-below-200-day-average">Bitcoin Price Falls Below 200-Day Average to Lowest Since August</a>

Bitcoin Price Falls to 200-Week Average as US Demand Fades

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