Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin broke its 200-day moving average near $73,136 early Thursday and fell to about $71,180, its lowest since Aug. 20, CoinMarketCap data show.</li>
 <li>About $475 million in long positions were liquidated across crypto markets in four hours, CoinGlass data show, as Nvidia's CEO resigned and the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5%.</li>
 <li>Bitfinex says Bitcoin won back the cost basis of recent buyers within two weeks in 11 of 14 breaks below it since 2016, which puts the two-week checkpoint on Nov. 22.</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) fell below its 200-day moving <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/moving-average-ma">average</a> on Thursday and touched about $71,180, its lowest since Aug. 20. Bitfinex's record of breaks below the cost basis of recent buyers puts the two-week checkpoint for winning that level back on Nov. 22.
The break came before the US open, and selling deepened after Nvidia's chief executive resigned. Leveraged bullish traders took most of the losses, and Bitfinex analysts say that <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/leverage">leverage</a> has yet to clear.
A CryptoQuant contributor set out the next test on Wednesday.
"A sustained break below $73,000 followed by a failed retest from below would strengthen the case for bear-market continuation," MorenoDV_ <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/2120437950383268057">wrote</a>.
<h2 id="header-1">How Far Has Bitcoin Fallen? Below Its 200-Day Average</h2>
Bitcoin traded at $71,346 at 10:28 a.m. ET on Thursday, CoinMarketCap data show. It slipped below the 200-day average early in the morning, hours before the US open.
The 200-day average smooths out daily swings, and traders watch it as a dividing line for the longer-term trend. Bitcoin last closed below it in August.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/fc46d2618d4f480b9f7011d49802393d.png">
Bitcoin's price over the past month, including Thursday's break below its 200-day average. Source: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">CoinMarketCap</a>
The average had held on a closing basis through Tuesday's inflation data. Bitcoin <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-holds-73k-stablecoin-supply-shrinks">held</a> that line again on Wednesday, with buy orders <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-70k-downside-short-squeeze-80k">stacked</a> just above it.
<h2 id="header-2">What Pushed It Lower? Liquidations, Nvidia and MSCI</h2>
About $475 million in <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/long">long</a> positions were liquidated across crypto markets on Thursday morning, CoinGlass data show. A long liquidation forces a sale when a leveraged bet on higher prices runs out of collateral.
Futures selling is doing most of the damage. CryptoQuant contributor RugaResearch estimates that Bitcoin demand has turned sharply negative, with spot buying improving while perpetual futures drag.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/2120799488298086903"></tweet-embed>
Two corporate announcements added pressure. MSCI confirmed late Wednesday that it will remove Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, from its indexes, Benzinga reported. Nvidia then said Jensen Huang had resigned as chief executive, in a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001045810/000104581026000082/nvidiaannouncesceotransiti.htm">filing</a> before the market opened.
Long-term <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/interest-rates">rates</a> also rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield back above 5%, Yahoo Finance data show.
Bitcoin fell further than the Nasdaq, where Nvidia's own shares recovered part of their early loss.
<h2 id="header-3">Has Leverage Cleared? Bitfinex Says Not Yet</h2>
Spot holders are selling at a loss, but more slowly than earlier in the year, Bitfinex analysts wrote. Leveraged traders have kept buying the dip instead.
After Tuesday's inflation data, about $729 million of liquidations barely dented open interest, they wrote.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/bitfinex/status/2120743454888046858"></tweet-embed>
Large holders have also stepped in. Glassnode found some large wallets buying last week.
<h2 id="header-4">What Decides the Next Move? A Retest and Nov. 22</h2>
Bitcoin has lost the cost basis of recent buyers, near $75,700 by Bitfinex's measure, 14 times since 2016 after long stretches above it. It won that level back within two weeks in 11 of those cases.
In the other three, it fell 17% to 35% below that level in the following months, Bitfinex <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitcoin-correction-or-reset/">found</a>.
Fund investors are still selling. US spot Bitcoin <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/exchange-traded-fund-etf">ETFs</a> lost about $300 million on Wednesday, extending a run of outflows, Farside Investors data show.
Glassnode's map puts the largest cluster of leveraged positions near $60,000.
"Patient buyers have often found opportunity in forced selling, and a sweep of $60k would create plenty of it," Glassnode <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/glassnode/status/2120594927889293619">wrote</a>.
Further Reading: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-70k-downside-short-squeeze-80k">Bitcoin Eyes $70K, but Short Squeeze Could Snap It Back to $80K</a>

Bitcoin Price Falls Below 200-Day Average to Lowest Since August

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