Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin puts expiring Nov. 4, the morning after the US midterm elections, carry implied volatility about 10 points above comparable calls, Deribit data show.</li>
 <li>The gap narrows to about six points for the Nov. 13 expiry and less than three by late December, so the extra cost sits around the vote.</li>
 <li>QCP Capital says a close above $79,500 would recover last week's range, while support between $76,000 and $76,600 has held four times.</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/option">options</a> traders are paying more to protect against a drop than to bet on a rise, a day before the US midterm elections. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/put-option">Puts</a> expiring the morning after the vote cost about 10 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/volatility">volatility</a> points more than comparable calls on Deribit.
The extra cost is concentrated in the election expiry and fades for later dates. QCP Capital <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-57/">wrote</a> that the demand for downside protection reflects last week's security incident at Binance and bearish sentiment more than election risk. Bitcoin is holding above support near $76,000 that the firm says has turned the price back four times.
Data firm Laevitas reads the pattern as hedging layered onto existing risk, CoinDesk <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/11/02/bitcoin-s-volatility-curve-has-a-midterm-bump">reported</a> on Monday.
“That kind of demand historically decays hard once the event it was bought for clears,” Laevitas said.
<h2 id="header-1">How Much Extra Do Puts Cost? About 10 Points More</h2>
On the Nov. 4 expiry, puts about 5% below Bitcoin's price traded at roughly 55% implied volatility on Monday morning. Calls the same distance above traded at 44%, Deribit data show.
The gap roughly halves for the Nov. 13 expiry and nearly disappears by late December.
Implied volatility also bulges around the vote. Comparing the Nov. 3 and Nov. 4 expiries, options price a move of about 2.6% for the 24 hours that span the election, by the desk's calculation. A typical day is priced at about 2%.
The bulge comes after a quiet stretch. Implied volatility sat near a two-year low in mid-October, the desk <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-options-volatility-2-year-low-fed">reported</a>.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/QCPgroup/status/2117205837102113160"></tweet-embed>
<h2 id="header-2">Why Now? The Vote and an Oil Spike</h2>
Polymarket traders <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms">give</a> Democrats about a 72% chance of winning both chambers of Congress, and those odds have risen since early October. A Democratic Congress would likely have to restart work on crypto market-structure rules after the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate in September, Bitcoin.com <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://news.bitcoin.com/featured/polymarket-gives-dems-62-midterm-sweep-odds-clarity-act-in-jeopardy/">reported</a>.
Oil is another risk. Brent crude settled at a six-month high on Friday after a tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Strategists say markets are pricing escalation after the vote, QCP <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/QCPgroup/status/2117205946363728283">wrote</a>.
Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has stayed flat, a sign that traders are protecting positions they already hold rather than adding <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/leverage">leverage</a>, Laevitas said.
<h2 id="header-3">Has This Happened Before? Higher a Year Later Every Time</h2>
Bitcoin was higher a year after each of the last three midterms, by as much as 92%, CoinMarketCap data show. Crypto author Quinten Francois pointed to the same record on Sunday.
The first month split the other way. Bitcoin lost ground in the month after both the 2018 and 2022 votes, the second time as the FTX exchange collapsed days after the polls closed.
Pseudonymous trader KrownCryptoCave wrote that what moved Bitcoin after past midterms was whatever was already breaking, rather than the vote.
<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/QCPgroup/status/2117205837102113160"></tweet-embed>
<h2 id="header-4">Where Is Support? $76,000, Then the 50-Week Line</h2>
Bitcoin traded near $77,900 on Monday morning, CoinMarketCap data show.
A close above $79,500 would recover the range Bitcoin lost on Thursday. Below $76,000 sits the 50-week moving <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/moving-average-ma">average</a> near $75,700. Galaxy Research uses the line to mark the end of the bear market, and the desk <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-tests-galaxy-tripwire-76k">covered</a> its test on Friday.
Longer-dated options carry a smaller downside premium. The strongest demand for protection sits in the days around the vote.
“Last week brought the longest run of daily net realized losses since mid-August. The August and September loss clusters both formed at the local lows. A hold above $75k would fit that pattern,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/glassnode/status/2117252467947950109">wrote</a> on Monday.
Further Reading: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-recover-80k-ai-crypto-crash">Will Bitcoin Recover $80K After Friday's AI and Crypto Crash?</a>

Bitcoin Traders Pay Up for Downside Protection Before the Midterms

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