Bitcoin

<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin fell to about $76,300 on Oct. 30, its lowest level of the month, as roughly $1.66 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated, CoinMarketCap data show.</li>
 <li>The drop tracked a sell-off in AI and Big Tech stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 down 4% on the day, and followed a security breach at Binance, which said it would cover user losses.</li>
 <li>Bitcoin has since recovered to about $79,000 but remains below the $80,000 level it needs to reclaim, with traders pricing a December Fed rate hike near 70%.</li>
</ul>
Traders’ hope for a Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/">BTC</a>) relief rally withered on Oct. 30 as BTC fell to $76,300 in the US trading session. Roughly 12 hours after the Binance exchange exploit, market liquidation data from CoinMarketCap showed $1.66 billion in leveraged positions liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for nearly $500 million of the total amount.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/29ff50dfcaf04b2c894e754afbb23f24.png">
Crypto market liquidations on Oct. 30. Source: CoinMarketCap
Off the cuff, market analysts will conveniently conclude that BTC’s downside was the result of the $6.3 billion hack of Binance.&nbsp;
In reality, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-falls-78k-dip-buyers-80k-bounce">Bitcoin’s weakness was already growing</a>. Bid support below $80,000 turned thin following the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hold, a two-faced PCE report, and a sharp downturn in US equity markets.&nbsp;
On Oct. 30, US indices sold off sharply, with the S&amp;P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow down 2.17%, 4%, and 1.19%, respectively, as the market close approached. <img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/1b05f0e5d0b441f98ff0125665f3d09d.png">
US stock indexes performance. Source: Yahoo Finance, Ray Salmond
Shares of Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel sold off sharply amid concerns over ballooning capex deployment, future revenue expectations, and, in some cases, slowing retail growth and earnings misses.
Across the board, crypto and stock traders fear that the loss of momentum in the AI and hyperscaler buildout will lead to a deep, lasting correction across multiple markets. Meanwhile, data shows previous AI-bubble scares also filtered over to corrections in Bitcoin price.&nbsp;<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/506293cedbc94acaa6219d0076f541fd.png">
Bitcoin price performance when AI-exposed stocks sell off. Source: Yahoo Finance, Ray Salmond
<h2 id="header-1">Can Bitcoin Recover $80,000 by Year-End?</h2>
According to Binance, its SAFU insurance fund will backstop losses connected to the hack. If US equity markets find footing going into this week, Bitcoin’s chance of recovering the $80,000 handle may improve.&nbsp;
Even if the $80,000 to $83,000 range is recaptured, risks remain. End of year calendar events in December, traders derisking going into the holiday season, and a potential Fed rate hike before the end of the year could re-enforce the price ceiling that has capped the $85,000 to $90,000 range for Bitcoin.&nbsp;
The Anthropic IPO is also expected to debut between Nov. 16 and Nov. 18. Similar to the SpaceX IPO, the listing may act as a liquidity vacuum that sucks capital out of crypto markets. This could set up a situation of low daily average volumes and thinner spot and futures orderbooks.&nbsp;
With the ‘Fed rate hold’ trade now officially over, longer-dated trader expectations shift toward December, where markets’ rate hike probabilities currently sit above 70%.&nbsp;<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/optimized-uploads/2af244448b5045698cf8b2fc9ef7ac03.png">
Fed interest rate probabilities (December 2026.) Source: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool">CME Group</a>&nbsp;
Investors traded the predicated hold with confidence, but how will they position in the wake of a potential hike?

Will Bitcoin Recover $80K After Friday's AI and Crypto Crash?

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