Ethena

Cryptocurrency

would

<p>The move comes four weeks into a correction that has left ENA roughly 30% below its late-September peak, according to Binance’s <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ENAUSDT/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ENA/USDT daily chart on TradingView</a>. Whether anything beyond the chart is backing the bounce is a separate question, and the answer is less encouraging.</p>
<p><a href="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/ethena-price-25-ocr-2026.jpg" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://coindoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/ethena-price-25-ocr-2026.jpg" alt="ENA/USDT daily price chart showing Ethena testing the upper edge of a falling channel near $0.207 after reclaiming its 50-day SMA near $0.204, with the 0.382 Fib at $0.209 overhead and RSI just above 50.
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<h2 id="what-changed-on-sunday">What changed on Sunday?</h2>
<p>ENA’s summer rally took it from a base near $0.07 to a peak near $0.295, more than quadrupling the token. The correction that followed stayed inside an orderly falling channel and bottomed near $0.18, at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of that move. Sunday stretched the bounce from that low to about 15%.</p>
<p>Two things gave way during the session. ENA climbed back above its 50-day SMA near $0.204 and pushed through the channel’s upper edge at the same time, then ran into the 0.382 Fib near $0.209, less than 1% overhead. With hours left in the session, the break is still intraday, so the daily close will decide whether it holds.</p>
<h3 id="is-momentum-on-the-buyers-side">Is momentum on the buyers’ side?</h3>
<p>For now, yes. RSI has crossed back above the 50 midpoint to about 50.5, clearing its signal line near 46. Volume has reached about 131.9 million ENA so far, with the candle still open.</p>
<h2 id="why-hasn-t-the-buyback-story-kicked-in">Why hasn’t the buyback story kicked in?</h2>
<p>Under Ethena’s fee switch, approved by governance in September, 95% of qualifying net protocol revenue goes to ENA buybacks, but only once the 14-day average supply of its USDe synthetic dollar reaches $7.5 billion. USDe stood near $4.76 billion in mid-October, according to DefiLlama data, about $2.7 billion short.</p>
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   <td style="padding: 4px 0; text-align: left;"><strong>USDe supply:</strong> ~$4.76B</td>
   <td style="padding: 4px 0; text-align: right;"><strong>Buyback trigger:</strong> $7.5B</td>
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<p>Until that gap closes, there is no protocol-funded buyer behind ENA, so Sunday’s move most likely rests on chart buyers alone.</p>
<h2 id="what-could-get-in-the-way">What could get in the way?</h2>
<p>The first obstacle is funding. USDe’s yield, and with it the demand that grows its supply, comes largely from funding payments on perpetual <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">futures</a>. Those payments shrink when leveraged longs are wiped out, and about $816 million in positions were liquidated across the market on Saturday, mostly longs, according to <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/liquidations" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinGlass</a>.</p>
<p>The second is token supply. A one-time release of all remaining investor tokens on October 5 ended the monthly investor schedule, and ENA has slid since then. Another 275 million ENA, worth about $57 million at today’s price, is set to unlock on November 1.</p>
<p>Put together, that is the bear case: one strong candle has not ended a month of lower highs, and both pressures arrive before any buyback support can.</p>
<h2 id="where-does-ena-meet-support-and-resistance">Where does ENA meet support and resistance?</h2>
<p>Above the 0.382 Fib, the next marker is the 0.236 Fib near $0.242, about 17% higher and the level where the October breakdown began. Clearing it would bring the late-September peak near $0.295 back into view, roughly 42% above current prices.</p>
<p>Below, the reclaimed 50-day SMA is the first line of defense, followed by the 0.5 Fib near $0.182, about 12% lower. A deeper slide would meet the 0.618 Fib near $0.156, where the 100-day SMA sits almost exactly on top, and then the 200-day SMA near $0.126. The base of the summer rally, near $0.07, lies about 66% below today’s price.</p>
<p style="margin: 30px 0 4px; font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold;">Three Ways the Week Could Play Out</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 14px; font-size: 13px; opacity: 0.7;">Scenarios, not forecasts. ENA sits between the 0.382 Fib just overhead and the 50-day SMA just below.</p>
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   <th style="width: 50%; text-align: left; padding: 10px 14px; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.12);">If ENA…</th>
   <th style="width: 50%; text-align: left; padding: 10px 14px; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.12);">Then…</th>
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   <td style="padding: 12px 14px; vertical-align: top; border-top: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3);">Closes above the 0.382 Fib this week and stays outside the channel</td>
   <td style="padding: 12px 14px; vertical-align: top; border-top: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3);"><strong style="color: #34d399;">↑</strong> Room opens toward the 0.236 Fib</td>
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   <td style="padding: 12px 14px; vertical-align: top; border-top: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3);">Closes back inside the channel and below the 50-day <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SMA</a> before November 1</td>
   <td style="padding: 12px 14px; vertical-align: top; border-top: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3);"><strong style="color: #f87171;">↓</strong> The break looks false, and the 0.5 Fib comes back into play</td>
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   <td style="padding: 12px 14px; vertical-align: top; border-top: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3);">Slides toward the 0.618 Fib and the 100-day SMA</td>
   <td style="padding: 12px 14px; vertical-align: top; border-top: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3);"><strong>→</strong> A deeper pullback, but the summer uptrend stays intact while that level holds</td>
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<div style="margin: 0 0 30px; padding: 16px 20px; border: 1px dotted rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.7); border-radius: 10px;">
 <p style="margin: 0 0 10px; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 1px; text-transform: uppercase; opacity: 0.8;">In short</p>
 <p style="margin: 0 0 6px;">• ENA tests the 0.382 Fib near $0.209.</p>
 <p style="margin: 0 0 6px;">• USDe sits $2.7B short of buyback trigger.</p>
 <p style="margin: 0 0 6px;">• A 275M ENA unlock lands on November 1.</p>
 <p style="margin: 0;">• <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">RSI</a> crosses back above its 50 midpoint.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><em>This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile.</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://coindoo.com/ethena-rises-channel-top-buybacks/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethena Rises 6% to Channel Top as Buybacks Stay Off</a> appeared first on <a href="https://coindoo.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coindoo</a>.</p>

Ethena Rises 6% to Channel Top as Buybacks Stay Off

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