Reserve

Chair

2026

FOMC

Greed

<p><strong>UBS is warning that the Federal Reserve is not done raising rates. According to unconfirmed reports, the Swiss banking giant expects two more hikes, targeting the December 2026 and March 2027 policy meetings, as U.S. inflation proves stubbornly resistant to the Fed’s tightening campaign.</strong></p>
<p>The forecast lands just weeks after the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">FOMC voted unanimously on September 16, 2026</a> to lift the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The committee said inflation remained elevated and that the move would support a timelier return to its 2% goal. For related coverage, see <a href="https://www.theccpress.com/fca-crypto-authorisation-in-2026-who-must-apply-before-the-2027-regime/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">FCA Crypto Authorisation in 2026: Who Must Apply Before the 2027 Regime?</a>.</p>
<h2 id="persistent-inflation-keeps-the-door-open-for-more-hikes">Persistent Inflation Keeps the Door Open for More Hikes</h2>
<p>The inflation backdrop gives the UBS view its teeth. The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending September 2026</a>, nearly double the Fed’s stated target. For related coverage, see <a href="https://www.theccpress.com/buy-crypto-xrp-all-time-high-solana-etf-launch/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Buy Crypto: XRP Near ATH as Solana ETF Launches</a>.</p>
<figure style="margin:24px 0;padding:22px 24px;border:1px solid #d9e1ea;border-left:5px solid #1f6feb;background:#f7faff;border-radius:4px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#172033;">
 <div style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:0.08em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#53657a;margin:0 0 8px;">
  U.S. inflation, September 2026
 </div>
 <div style="font-size:42px;line-height:1;font-weight:800;color:#102a43;margin:0 0 10px;">
  3.7%
 </div>
 <figcaption style="font-size:15px;line-height:1.45;color:#405268;margin:0;">
  Consumer prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Month over month, prices climbed 0.6% in September, an acceleration that signals the inflation problem is not simply lingering, it may be re-igniting.</p>
<figure style="margin:24px 0;padding:22px 24px;border:1px solid #d9e1ea;border-left:5px solid #1f6feb;background:#f7faff;border-radius:4px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#172033;">
 <div style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:0.08em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#53657a;margin:0 0 8px;">
  Monthly CPI increase
 </div>
 <div style="font-size:42px;line-height:1;font-weight:800;color:#102a43;margin:0 0 10px;">
  0.6%
 </div>
 <figcaption style="font-size:15px;line-height:1.45;color:#405268;margin:0;">
  The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September, underscoring the inflation backdrop for policy decisions.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Eugene Tan, writing in <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/why-did-the-federal-reserve-raise-interest-rates-and-how-does-it-affect-me" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The Straits Times</a>, noted that higher interest rates send immediate ripples into bond markets, where yields rise and borrowing becomes more expensive for households, companies, and governments. Higher financing costs affect consumer spending, corporate investment decisions, and the cost of servicing government debt.</p>
<h2 id="what-two-more-hikes-would-mean-for-policy-and-for-crypto">What Two More Hikes Would Mean for Policy, and for Crypto</h2>
<p>If the UBS forecast plays out, the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">December 8-9, 2026 and March 16-17, 2027 FOMC meetings</a> both scheduled with a Summary of Economic Projections, would each deliver another 25-basis-point increase. That would push the federal-funds rate to a range not seen since before the post-pandemic easing cycle.</p>
<p>It is worth noting this is a forecast, not a Fed commitment. Actual decisions will depend on how inflation and employment evolve between now and those meetings. <a href="https://www.theccpress.com/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-october-rate-hike-signal/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has already declined to pre-signal the October decision</a>, underscoring just how data-dependent the path forward remains.</p>
<p>For crypto markets, the implications are real. Bitcoin is currently trading at <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$81,542</a>, up 0.15% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap above $1.63 trillion and 24-hour volume near $14.2 billion. The <a href="https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index</a> sits at 53, a neutral reading, suggesting the market has not yet priced in a prolonged tightening scenario. <a href="https://www.theccpress.com/us-bitcoin-etf-flows-control-btc-trend/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin ETF flows have been a key driver of BTC’s market direction</a> this cycle, and a hawkish rate path could test that demand.</p>
<p>A tighter-for-longer Fed also complicates the broader institutional picture. <a href="https://www.theccpress.com/msci-remove-strategy-crypto-treasury-firms-indexes/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Index providers like MSCI are already rethinking exposure to crypto-adjacent firms</a>, and a rate environment that pushes the risk-free rate higher makes speculative assets less attractive by comparison.</p>
<p>The UBS call is a warning shot, not a verdict. But with inflation running at 3.7% and the Fed already at its most restrictive stance in years, the question is no longer whether rates will stay high, it is whether the market is truly ready for them to go higher still.</p>
<p style="font-size:13px;color:#888;border-top:1px solid #333;padding-top:12px;margin-top:30px;">Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.</p>
<p>The article <a href="https://www.theccpress.com/?p=49095" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">UBS Forecasts Two More Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 and 2027</a> first featured on <a href="https://theccpress.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">theccpress.com</a>.</p>

UBS Forecasts Two More Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 and 2027

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