bullish

Solana

would

<p>Solana price has entered October near $121 after gaining 14.6% in September, leaving a break above 124–125 as the main technical condition for extending the recovery toward $148.</p>
<div id="cn-block-summary-block_e80fef5777f9286c3ccde2f948b3d8cb" class="cn-block-summary">
 <div class="cn-block-summary__nav tabs"><span>Summary</span>
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  <ul>
   <li>Solana trades near $121, with 124-125 remaining the main resistance zone entering October this month.</li>
   <li>U.S. Solana ETFs added only $800,000 last week after attracting $188.1 million the prior week.</li>
   <li>SOL gained 14.6% in September after August’s 41.5% rally, closing the month near $118 overall.</li>
   <li>Alpenglow targets roughly 150-millisecond finality, but Solana has not confirmed a mainnet activation date yet.</li>
   <li>$117 remains immediate support, while a sustained break above 124-125 could reopen the $148 area.</li>
  </ul>
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<p>According to CoinGecko, SOL <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">trades</a> around $121.27 on Oct. 4, up roughly 1.6% over 24 hours but down 2.5% over seven days. Its market capitalization stands near $71.3 billion, while 24-hour trading volume is approximately $1.7 billion.</p>
<p>The current move follows two strong months. Historical price data show SOL gained around 41.5% in August before rising another 14.6% in September. September opened near $103 and finished around $118, with the token reaching above $124 late in the month.</p>
<p>You might also like: <a href="https://crypto.news/can-solana-price-hit-130-after-forward-industries-buys/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> Can Solana price hit $130 after Forward Industries buys 949K SOL? </a></p>
<p>October has started with SOL recovering from the 117–119 area, but buyers have not yet cleared the late-September high. CoinGecko places the recent seven-day range between $116.44 and $124.27, keeping both levels relevant as traders assess the next move.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-solana-price-needs-to-break-strong-strong-124-strong-strong-125-before-148-strong"><strong>Solana price needs to break </strong><strong>124–</strong><strong>125 before $148</strong></h2>
<p>The immediate resistance zone sits between roughly $124 and $125. SOL closed at $122.08 on Sept. 25 and later traded above $124 intraday before retreating toward $118 at the end of the month.</p>
<p>As crypto.news <a href="https://crypto.news/solana-price-loses-120-as-bearish-money-flow-test/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported in its late-September Solana analysis</a>, SOL reached approximately $124.62 before the rally stalled. The same setup placed $117 as the immediate support area, followed by $116.32 and $112.50 if selling continued.</p>
<p>Price has since recovered above $120, but a move through 124–125 has not been confirmed. A daily close above the resistance range, followed by support holding there, would strengthen the case for another leg higher.</p>
<p>The $148 level comes from a separate technical setup shared by trader Daan Crypto Trades. His chart identified $117 as the level SOL needed to preserve before targeting $148. Since SOL has held above that region for now, the target remains technically possible, though the resistance around 124–125 must still be cleared first.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x">
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   <p><a href="https://x.com/search?q=%24SOL&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$SOL</a> Flipped the $117 resistance. Targeting $148 next if this level holds.<br><br>Not the quickest mover, other coins will move faster. But chart has been pretty straight forward and respecting levels well. Drawdowns have been pretty minimal so easier hold. <a href="https://t.co/anRSb6tx7O" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://t.co/anRSb6tx7O</a><a href="https://t.co/ev36nqiPCd" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/ev36nqiPCd</a></p>— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) <a href="https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2104901406985781749?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">September 29, 2026</a>
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<p>From the current price near $121, a move to $148 would require an advance of roughly 22%. From $125, the move would be closer to 18%.</p>
<p>The monthly chart supplied for this analysis shows RSI at 50.70, above its moving average of 46.61. RSI moving back above 50 shows momentum has improved from earlier weakness, though the reading remains neutral and well below the 70 overbought level.</p>
<p>MACD remains below zero. The MACD line is near -8.82 compared with a signal line around -5.34, leaving the histogram close to -3.48. The negative reading means longer-term bearish momentum has not fully disappeared, though the narrowing histogram shows the downside momentum has eased.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="523" src="https://media.crypto.news/2026/10/image-11-1024x523.webp" alt="Solana (SOL) price chart, source: TradingView">
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  Solana (SOL) price chart, source: TradingView
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</figure>
<p>The one-year chart places the 50-day moving average near $104 and the 200-day average around $97 as of early October. Both sit below the current market, while the nearer chart levels at $117 and $109 provide earlier tests if SOL turns lower.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-solana-etf-buying-slowed-sharply-entering-october-strong"><strong>Solana ETF buying slowed sharply entering October</strong></h2>
<p>Institutional demand remains part of the October picture, but the latest ETF data are much weaker than the previous week.</p>
<p>Farside Investors <a href="https://farside.co.uk/sol/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">shows</a> U.S. Solana ETFs recorded just $800,000 in combined net inflows from Sept. 28 through Oct. 2. The products attracted $7.7 million on Sept. 28 and $5.4 million the next day before recording $12.5 million in outflows on Sept. 30.</p>
<p>Another $1.1 million left the products on Oct. 1, followed by $1.3 million of inflows on Oct. 2. The five sessions left the group almost flat for the week.</p>
<p>The slowdown is notable compared with the previous trading week. From Sept. 21 through Sept. 25, Solana ETFs attracted approximately $188.1 million, including $86.7 million on Sept. 25 alone.</p>
<p>As crypto.news <a href="https://crypto.news/crypto-etf-flows-split-bitcoin-gains-ethereum-bleeds/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported in its latest ETF-flow review</a>, the $800,000 weekly intake represented a sharp slowdown from the $188.1 million recorded the week before.</p>
<p>Cumulative flows remain much larger. Farside data place total Solana ETF flows at approximately $1.6 billion, including seed capital reflected separately in the fund table. Bitwise’s BSOL accounts for the largest portion of net inflows.</p>
<p>Fresh October flows therefore matter more for the short-term price setup than the cumulative figure alone. A return to persistent inflows would provide a clearer institutional demand signal, while another stretch of flat or negative sessions would leave SOL more dependent on spot-market buying.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-alpenglow-gives-solana-another-october-catalyst-strong"><strong>Alpenglow gives Solana another October catalyst</strong></h2>
<p>Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade remains one of the main network developments to watch during October.</p>
<p>The Solana Foundation <a href="https://solana.com/id/upgrades/alpenglow" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">describes</a> Alpenglow as a replacement for the current TowerBFT consensus system, with a target of reducing finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds.</p>
<p>The first stage, Votor, replaces validator vote transactions with direct validator communication and aggregate certificates. Solana says the system can finalize blocks through a fast path when at least 80% of stake votes in the first round, with a fallback process using 60% thresholds.</p>
<p>As crypto.news <a href="https://crypto.news/solana-alpenglow-upgrade-reaches-devnet-150ms-finality/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported in September</a>, Alpenglow reached Solana’s devnet and testnet as developers and validators began testing the consensus change before mainnet deployment.</p>
<p>Mainnet has not received a confirmed activation date. Solana’s official upgrade documentation states there is “no fixed activation time” and says each cluster migrates on its own schedule. The network exposes an RPC method that can show whether Alpenglow consensus has started on a particular cluster.</p>
<p>The 150-millisecond figure should therefore be treated as a target, not as a live mainnet performance measurement. Solana says actual finality depends on network conditions, validator distribution and whether a block finishes through the one-round or two-round path.</p>
<p>Solana has already completed other performance changes. The Foundation <a href="https://solana.com/news/solana-changelog-september-18-2026?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported</a> in September that target slot times had fallen to 250 milliseconds on mainnet, while Transaction V1 and lower storage costs had moved forward separately.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-tokenized-assets-add-another-october-event-strong"><strong>Tokenized assets add another October event</strong></h2>
<p>Institutional tokenization gives Solana another development to track during October, though current initiatives do not guarantee demand for SOL.</p>
<p>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission <a href="https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-90-sec-issues-innovation-exemption-facilitate-trading-tokenized-nms-stock-request-comment" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">granted</a> temporary conditional relief on Sept. 17 allowing qualifying Tokenized Securities Venues to trade tokenized U.S.-listed stocks through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools.</p>
<p>The exemption runs for five years under specified conditions. Eligible tokenized stocks must preserve the economic, voting and dividend rights attached to the traditional shares.</p>
<p>The SEC order does not select Solana or require tokenized securities to use any particular blockchain.</p>
<p>Solana nevertheless has existing projects working on institutional tokenization. The Solana Foundation <a href="https://solana.com/news/project-harmonia-brings-institutional-tokenized-funds-to-solana" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">announced</a> Project Harmonia in September, connecting Allfunds’ fund distribution network with tokenized funds on Solana.</p>
<p>Allfunds had approximately €1.9 trillion in assets under administration as of June 30, according to the Foundation. Project Harmonia applications remain open until Oct. 24, with the first cohort targeted for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.</p>
<p>The Foundation says Solana already hosts more than $4 billion of institutional real-world assets onchain. The figure comes from the project’s own ecosystem announcement and should not be interpreted as a forecast of future SOL demand.</p>
<p>In related coverage, crypto.news <a href="https://crypto.news/backpack-ceo-bring-10000-tokenized-stocks-to-solana/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported on Backpack’s tokenized-stock plans</a> after CEO Armani Ferrante said the company wants to expand access from roughly 200 stock symbols toward 10,000 through Solana. No launch date for the full target was provided.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-solana-price-prediction-for-october-has-three-main-paths-strong"><strong>Solana price prediction for October has three main paths</strong></h2>
<p>October’s technical structure remains centered on support at $117 and $109 and resistance around 124–125.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-table">
 <table class="has-fixed-layout">
  <tbody>
   <tr>
    <td><strong>October setup</strong></td>
    <td><strong>Price area</strong></td>
    <td><strong>What would need to happen</strong></td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td><strong>Bullish breakout</strong></td>
    <td><strong>124–</strong><strong>148</strong></td>
    <td>SOL holds $117 and establishes support above 124–125</td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td><strong>Sideways trading</strong></td>
    <td><strong>109–</strong><strong>125</strong></td>
    <td>Buyers protect support but repeated breakout attempts fail</td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td><strong>Bearish pullback</strong></td>
    <td><strong>95–</strong><strong>109</strong></td>
    <td>SOL loses $109 and cannot quickly reclaim the level</td>
   </tr>
  </tbody>
 </table>
</figure>
<p>The bullish case requires more than a brief move above $124. SOL would need to close above the resistance region and continue trading above it. A confirmed breakout could reopen the $130 area before attention moves toward $140 and the chart target at $148.</p>
<p>CoinGecko’s current prediction-market display shows $130 carrying higher implied odds than $140, though prediction-market prices change continuously and are not technical forecasts.</p>
<p>The neutral scenario would keep SOL between $109 and $125. Price could continue building support after two months of gains while buyers and sellers compete around the September highs.</p>
<p>A breakdown below $109 would weaken the recovery structure. The next chart level sits around $95, close to the mid-September low near $96.87 recorded by CoinGecko.</p>
<p>Below $95, the supplied chart places another support region near $85. Reaching that area would represent a much deeper retracement and would put SOL closer to the moving averages that supported the summer recovery.</p>
<p>Historical October performance offers little guidance. The Binance monthly candles supplied for this analysis show three positive Octobers and three negative ones between 2020 and 2025. SOL gained 79.7% in October 2023 but lost 46.5% in October 2020, leaving the sample too mixed to establish a reliable seasonal pattern.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-solana-price-prediction-strong-strong-faqs-strong"><strong>Solana price prediction </strong><strong>FAQs</strong></h2>
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  <div id="faq-question-1791114308275" class="rank-math-list-item">
   <h3 class="rank-math-question " id="strong-can-solana-price-reach-148-in-october-strong"><strong>Can Solana price reach $148 in October?</strong></h3>
   <div class="rank-math-answer ">
    <p>SOL could reach $148 if it preserves support and breaks decisively through 124–125. The $148 level comes from a technical setup that depends on the former $117 resistance continuing to act as support. It remains a conditional target, not a guaranteed forecast.</p>
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  <div id="faq-question-1791114315116" class="rank-math-list-item">
   <h3 class="rank-math-question " id="strong-what-is-the-biggest-solana-resistance-in-october-strong"><strong>What is the biggest Solana resistance in October?</strong></h3>
   <div class="rank-math-answer ">
    <p>The main resistance sits around 124–125. SOL reached approximately $124.62 in late September before falling back, while CoinGecko’s current seven-day high stands near $124.27.</p>
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  <div id="faq-question-1791114322335" class="rank-math-list-item">
   <h3 class="rank-math-question " id="strong-what-support-should-solana-traders-watch-strong"><strong>What support should Solana traders watch?</strong></h3>
   <div class="rank-math-answer ">
    <p>The immediate support area is around $117. The wider structure places another important level near $109. Losing $109 would bring $95 into focus, while $85 remains a deeper downside area from the supplied chart.</p>
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  <div id="faq-question-1791114331264" class="rank-math-list-item">
   <h3 class="rank-math-question " id="strong-is-alpenglow-already-live-on-solana-mainnet-strong"><strong>Is Alpenglow already live on Solana mainnet?</strong></h3>
   <div class="rank-math-answer ">
    <p>No confirmed mainnet activation has been announced. The upgrade has moved through testing networks, while Solana’s official documentation says cluster activation does not occur at one predetermined time.</p>
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  <div id="faq-question-1791114339615" class="rank-math-list-item">
   <h3 class="rank-math-question " id="strong-are-solana-etfs-still-seeing-strong-demand-strong"><strong>Are Solana ETFs still seeing strong demand?</strong></h3>
   <div class="rank-math-answer ">
    <p>Demand slowed sharply in the latest week. U.S. Solana ETFs attracted approximately $800,000 from Sept. 28 through Oct. 2 after recording $188.1 million in the prior week.</p>
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<p>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</p>
<p>Read more: <a href="https://crypto.news/can-ethereum-price-reach-3000-in-october/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> Ethereum price prediction: Can ETH reach $3,000 in October? </a></p>

Solana price prediction 2026: Will Alpenglow spark a bullish SOL breakout in October?

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